NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea0aa34c328d0ba2fa2fb3f1b474544c1aac4e8d571ff73cffa7195374b998bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 51c | 10,824$5,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,520 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 50c | 9,674$4,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,837.04 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 8,177$4,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,089.38 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 50c | 7,500$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 6,828$3,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,414 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 6,423$3,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,275.95 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 50c | 4,500$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 50c | 3,916$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Under | 52c | 3,043$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.57 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 50c | 1,561$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.5 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 52c | 865.38$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 51c | 785$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.35 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 48c | 692.38$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.04 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…6055backed Over | 50c | 677$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 50c | 637$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.5 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 441$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.64 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…5a46backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 50c | 333$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 49c | 149.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 113.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Over | 48c | 112.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Under | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa588…dad8backed Over | 49c | 107$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 53c | 34.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5this page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-0.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals49ers won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals: 1H Moneyline49ers won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.