TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x910d…5a46

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NBA, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 58 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST2814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+26.9%+$9.96
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$21.03
Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+86.6%+$302.11
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+1,121.5%+$2,770
Over 40,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$260
Over 45,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$143
Over 50,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$105
Over 55,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$188
Over $5M committed to the Makina public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Over $1.5M committed to the Makina public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$600
Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$569Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$569
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$117
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,108Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$2,108
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,229Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,229
Over $1.6B committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$188
Over $2B committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Over $1.4B committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$266
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,550Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,550
Over $1.2B committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$305
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,048Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,048
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$2,831Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$2,831.36
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,860Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+189.4%+$3,522.65
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will no house vote on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill occur by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$50
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$140
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$629Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$629
All 10 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.43per pick17cpaid+400.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+67.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+163.2%+$326.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+47.1%+$47.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Georgia win on 2025-11-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$83
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.