TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,517,713
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,707,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,517,713 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 784 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2048…f572backed Yes67c102,282$68,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,046.569046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb45…952dbacked Yes52c57,053$29,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,420.042015%3 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb90…883cbacked Yes70c55,554$39,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,029.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9c…34d9backed No66c52,443$34,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,843.282634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed No9c50,541$4,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,117.7513422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Yes6c46,138$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,838.31922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e6…2ef8backed Yes67c45,034$30,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,105.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6996…408dbacked No52c41,020$21,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,516.63850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf74b…95cbbacked No12c38,734$4,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,163.746314.3%9 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2229…6bf8backed No20c37,728$7,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,207.573863.2%24 W · 14 L+10.5wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+90.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes21c37,531$7,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,855.763243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf67f…31cfbacked No30c37,226$10,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,229.043056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14b9…f378backed No41c36,313$14,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,584.92240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb8…82e6backed Yes60c35,435$21,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,333.241118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid+94.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6de…ea39backed No10c31,441$3,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,431.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+316.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63a4…2528backed No13c31,130$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,230.393372.7%24 W · 9 L+13.8wins+0.42per pick31cpaid+257.2%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed No18c29,239$5,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,007.44544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes5c29,137$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.54318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacd8…1325backed No32c25,769$8,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,454.863240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf674…f4c8backed Yes40c24,149$9,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,624.793444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes26c23,534$6,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,013.424320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d7…eaf2backed Yes7c23,211$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.891315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+307.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9db7…e0d8backed Yes61c21,825$13,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,314.141910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50b4…c354backed No22c20,980$4,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,353.161560%9 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+62.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked No71c19,478$13,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,653.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-53%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes2c19,073$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.027919%15 W · 64 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab1…2473backed No42c18,893$7,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,975.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No63c18,883$11,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,973.4816247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8eff…e593backed Yes71c18,079$12,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,756.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0bf…9401backed Yes36c17,655$6,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,423.211747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f7…400cbacked No25c17,330$4,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,062.533135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No16c16,669$2,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,067.29728.3%6 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-69.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8f8…ade4backed No13c15,566$2,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,555.13560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+148.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes64c15,193$9,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,769.815633.9%19 W · 37 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8203…0187backed No80c15,158$12,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,040.111612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.8wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-84%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3b3c…c600backed Yes55c14,348$7,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,907.17132.4%23 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed No76c13,819$10,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,384.041968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xace9…c41fbacked No15c13,442$2,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,404.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+73.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes72c13,255$9,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,486.6713023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f61…e259backed Yes78c13,182$10,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,320.085028%14 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe105…9cb3backed Yes60c13,000$7,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,858.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed No21c12,715$2,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,009.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+370%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2064…317abacked Yes0c12,568$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f8…a3f1backed No4c12,491$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,982.01580%4 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick32cpaid+534.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1a4…8178backed Yes2c12,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102520%5 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No15c11,916$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,177.019747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked No48c11,538$5,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,958.585459.3%32 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6100…46aebacked No52c11,495$5,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,531.551315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-75.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed No22c11,388$2,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,886.561435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed No79c11,179$8,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,335.96580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+91.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No74c10,653$7,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,768.847255.6%40 W · 32 L+11.3wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+42.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8163…1ce8backed No11c10,453$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,304.442330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed Yes0c10,200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.28017.5%14 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c3…0e32backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e3…5bdabacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c17…d5a1backed No12c9,882$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,710.95955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+71.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5b…2903backed Yes75c9,755$7,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,331.643627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes27c9,647$2,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,613.697514.7%11 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa553…6236backed Yes30c9,461$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,833.321612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-79.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x364d…5153backed No21c9,399$1,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,439.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+379.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5682…97afbacked No71c8,500$6,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,498.051861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes18c8,310$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.542714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x713d…53a9backed Yes74c8,000$5,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,930922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked No21c7,973$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,272.93834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48d1…4903backed No11c7,861$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,998.631145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+105.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9770…6474backed Yes51c7,458$3,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,769.58728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x783e…d7c8backed Yes28c7,335$2,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,088.731735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fd…48fbbacked Yes48c7,298$3,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,482.611020%2 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-69%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed No21c7,276$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,748.37231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes20c7,264$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.396217.7%11 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3774…886ebacked No20c7,252$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,827.09977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+72.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd973…643fbacked Yes52c7,012$3,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,644.461020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02fc…0853backed No44c6,826$3,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,804.96683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+32.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No7c6,672$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,172.72377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4c…06dabacked No79c6,612$5,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x923d…2c28backed Yes31c6,580$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,027.121030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82a2…94edbacked Yes29c6,432$1,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,857.52240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd297…2919backed Yes62c6,423$4,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,004.269550.5%48 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x990b…7ac3backed Yes56c6,328$3,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,565.542050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3c0…d212backed Yes60c6,280$3,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,756.84425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-67%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fe7…44a2backed No26c6,245$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,641.343534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e85…1f81backed No20c6,215$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,957.173946.2%18 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80b9…cedcbacked Yes70c6,050$4,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,213.512245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…e2d3backed Yes37c5,996$2,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,238.921612.5%2 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-74.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb10a…ab03backed Yes28c5,787$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.173461.8%21 W · 13 L+9.4wins+0.28per pick34cpaid+193.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa3c2…a3d6backed Yes74c5,709$4,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,219.784257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x277b…f52cbacked Yes38c5,642$2,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,142.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9e0…64fabacked Yes8c5,579$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c64…6746backed No18c5,578$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,578.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+457.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4254…835ebacked Yes69c5,511$3,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,794.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked No59c5,400$3,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff7…291ebacked No11c5,288$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,681.411118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick9cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes45c5,250$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,353.442236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5e8…a5cbbacked Yes2c5,235$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.89110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cde…8833backed Yes20c5,156$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.5160%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb780…e404backed Yes29c5,000$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe733…d0dfbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02e4…f0aebacked No18c4,946$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,052.352142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03c4…01bdbacked No33c4,567$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,066.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No14c4,511$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8903724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.