Token Launches · resolved market
Over 45,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6ff9f8da4a86480c92322032892d3febb15228a57b832ce4a50b066e47b2b45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,999$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…e0d8backed Yes | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…0448backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 6c | 6,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e259backed Yes | 1c | 5,941$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 1c | 5,458$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 13c | 4,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e81…5d10backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e6…4f99backed Yes | 2c | 2,334$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…2630backed Yes | 3c | 1,869$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89c…36f6backed Yes | 3c | 1,479$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,206$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,082$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,045$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fe…b350backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -58%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes | 2c | 921.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…5a46backed Yes | 20c | 720.52$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 3c | 483.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed No | 77c | 383$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes | 20c | 299.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 23c | 280$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 78c | 264.87$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked Yes | 14c | 260$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…0af6backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed Yes | 14c | 175$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed Yes | 14c | 162$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…f617backed Yes | 32c | 157.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed No | 75c | 143.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 23c | 111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 104$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 77c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…d65bbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…f2bdbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…2c5cbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over 45,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?this page
- Over 10,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Yes won
- Over 15,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Yes won
- Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 40,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 50,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 55,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 7000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.