TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over 40,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$224,189
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$254,128

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,189 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes0c20,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80557.3%4 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db7…e0d8backed Yes9c12,199$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.931910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes1c7,010$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.122236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec5d…8f70backed Yes1c6,428$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed Yes15c6,014$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.449046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes1c5,800$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.316841.2%28 W · 40 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes1c5,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.55633.9%19 W · 37 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf584…803cbacked Yes1c4,508$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.891833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7316…4686backed Yes1c4,185$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1681…b1c7backed No77c3,919$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.693060%18 W · 12 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+53.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes5c2,500$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.54254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes2c2,304$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6614732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes12c2,103$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Yes6c2,100$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125339.1%3 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a8a…e4cdbacked Yes15c2,099$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3222330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes4c1,849$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.49773.9%3 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,703$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.677663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16e0…ad22backed Yes1c1,657$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes1c1,391$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-58.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f61…e259backed Yes1c1,357$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.885028%14 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7e6…4f99backed Yes5c1,333$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-67.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc10c…d845backed No78c1,270$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.282445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-18.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ff…9708backed Yes1c1,110$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.033545.7%16 W · 19 L+5.2wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+88.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b3c…c600backed Yes27c1,100$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2977132.4%23 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x816e…8263backed Yes17c1,094$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.481618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes2c1,091$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3716740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x910d…5a46backed Yes24c1,083$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602814.3%4 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes28c1,080$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.2413023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes6c1,000$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.314418.2%8 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x935c…b84dbacked Yes3c1,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb279…8ba3backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes12c755$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.523841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes10c710$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.872377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ccc…cd45backed No75c655$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003215.6%5 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-58%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e45…ae93backed No63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0503…db3dbacked Yes22c499.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104219%8 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed Yes10c499.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dba…9c3dbacked Yes25c452.82$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcab8…b955backed Yes37c377.21$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.572425%6 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed No72c373.32$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.017231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7a…0e63backed Yes6c350$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214517.8%8 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No79c338.73$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4110756.1%60 W · 47 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbaa9…4baabacked Yes18c323$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.686240.3%25 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No75c313.99$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6810763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91b2…f617backed Yes26c310.59$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802119%4 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-72.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes7c306.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.58728.3%6 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-69.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x86c1…d727backed Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-75.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe34…a718backed Yes37c270$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.91435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0687…bb08backed Yes34c268.3$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c264.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7733329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7233…f0eabacked Yes14c263$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.82650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes27c257$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8163…1ce8backed No80c255$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes7c241$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+47.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd160…0af6backed Yes17c213.31$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.64924.5%12 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed No73c201$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.27837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb1…3cd0backed No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958f…a83cbacked Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed No80c198$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.42666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+36.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes36c188.46$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5446320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xcdd2…a1fdbacked Yes28c175.43$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+156%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed Yes14c164$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7509…1cd2backed Yes23c150$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.54332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed81…82eebacked Yes16c145$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.17834.6%27 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes14c141$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.741250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed Yes27c140$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+59.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed Yes19c138$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.22837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-39.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbe4…b196backed Yes23c131.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.911241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes32c125$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.52321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-63.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Yes16c119.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8a…9f2abacked Yes15c114.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.72650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+281.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4eb7…3c31backed Yes38c110$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c102$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.621240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc29a…1d16backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80fe…1599backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…e564backed No79c96.25$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-56.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4397…1901backed No74c94.59$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.591369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes14c81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f2…b27abacked Yes28c65.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.331723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f4…b92bbacked No77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.944100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd00d…83debacked Yes17c59.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.15333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes24c53.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8220422.1%45 W · 159 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x562d…7a9dbacked No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef6e…8a93backed Yes30c46.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed Yes27c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.15850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…4827backed No79c37.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.74944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…7d2cbacked No76c31.09$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb013…6b3abacked No68c29.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.364940.8%20 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3814…4fe4backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.31per pick58cpaid+66.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa32b…e70ebacked No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.25728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick67cpaid-56.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed No73c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.67728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49b1…0f4dbacked No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.151450%7 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.