Token Launches · resolved market
Over 15,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5af91beb9d3374df483a7512f17a6a7029aca3032bcf45a6ddbb89b17eed77f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 71c | 5,541$3,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.41 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 18c | 5,060$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.02 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed No | 30c | 3,496$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.94 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed No | 7c | 2,106$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.34 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed No | 2c | 1,443$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdc…1dd4backed Yes | 77c | 1,155$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed No | 10c | 1,109$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.98 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…f0aebacked Yes | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed No | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed No | 2c | 938$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 719.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked No | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 11c | 700$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 2c | 624.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed No | 4c | 587.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f3…5d04backed No | 4c | 476.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 28c | 457$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…c0bebacked No | 56c | 416.31$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.39 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…11ecbacked Yes | 44c | 389.74$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed Yes | 74c | 364$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…2ecdbacked No | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed No | 15c | 335.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 72c | 312$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 6c | 294$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 80c | 262.52$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 28c | 240$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 26c | 211$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 72c | 206$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc9…3a26backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +109%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked No | 28c | 198$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +296.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Yes | 77c | 152.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 72c | 136$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed No | 13c | 135.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 10c | 135.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb29f…2619backed No | 18c | 130.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 26c | 119$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 72c | 115$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked No | 10c | 114$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…5165backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x343b…718dbacked No | 58c | 86.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 72c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 26c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…3d69backed Yes | 48c | 73.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 72c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…59d8backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9760…24a5backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 48c | 46.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 35.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over 15,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?this page
- Over 10,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Yes won
- Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 40,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 45,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 50,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 55,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 7000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.