Token Launches · resolved market
Over 7000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8f8816fd8768496362d8997efc1bae640eee4325a11e82d77c6b74b3bd84f69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked No | 0c | 97,217$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.57 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…2ef2backed No | 1c | 7,117$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed No | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80fe…1599backed No | 1c | 4,301$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…39f1backed No | 1c | 1,582$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,517$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 1c | 1,458$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 1c | 1,003$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 5c | 357$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 5c | 241$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked No | 13c | 175$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over 7000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?this page
- Over 10,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Yes won
- Over 15,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Yes won
- Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 40,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 45,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 50,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 55,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.