TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$738,125
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$745,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $738,125 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 315 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce02…73aabacked Yes0c66,608$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed Yes23c32,801$7,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,507.79046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes4c29,175$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.023724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb45…952dbacked Yes8c21,187$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.032015%3 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4eb8…82e6backed Yes38c20,160$7,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,586.931118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid+94.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes1c20,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506217.7%11 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Yes0c16,753$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Yes4c15,000$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5553036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7316…4686backed Yes4c10,667$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db7…e0d8backed Yes9c10,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60557.3%4 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a8a…e4cdbacked No70c9,694$6,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,937.82330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6552…baa4backed Yes36c9,691$3,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,501.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec5d…8f70backed Yes2c9,486$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c9,280$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.97663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed Yes0c9,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334114.6%6 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x783e…d7c8backed Yes7c7,201$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c1…d727backed Yes24c6,396$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-75.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd973…643fbacked Yes19c6,386$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.841020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f61…e259backed Yes7c6,298$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.545028%14 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb90…883cbacked No79c6,202$4,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8163…1ce8backed No50c5,953$2,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,985.992330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed Yes7c5,855$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.486031.7%19 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes10c5,515$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.134418.2%8 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74d7…6beabacked Yes2c4,900$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.51717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed No75c3,891$2,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.511968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3c…c600backed No53c3,815$2,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,801.547132.4%23 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes7c3,658$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.582123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb118…2cd4backed Yes0c3,616$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1681…b1c7backed No29c3,425$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,425.363060%18 W · 12 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+53.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c3,390$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.517919%15 W · 64 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed Yes8c3,354$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2693215.6%5 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-58%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc2b2…fa27backed No72c3,352$2,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.61875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+81.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed Yes2c3,258$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.757231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes5c3,108$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.64773.9%3 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No52c3,104$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.494763.8%30 W · 17 L+10.3wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+48.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes6c3,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010045%45 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No59c2,984$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.2820551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6465…f8ddbacked Yes5c2,800$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140130%0 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21b6…83d8backed Yes3c2,799$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.358017.5%14 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed No75c2,681$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.943847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes4c2,600$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1088127.2%22 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a4…2528backed No75c2,514$1,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.473372.7%24 W · 9 L+13.8wins+0.42per pick31cpaid+257.2%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x935c…b84dbacked Yes3c2,430$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.65110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes18c2,331$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.71728.3%6 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-69.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes4c2,272$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.611216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0048…ab1cbacked Yes65c2,185$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.252737%10 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes8c2,145$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1614732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc05f…9b56backed No64c2,094$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.269254.3%50 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed No46c2,055$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.055240.4%21 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf67f…31cfbacked No52c2,000$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9573056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes28c2,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55012528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.991338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No65c1,862$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.910462.5%65 W · 39 L+13.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Yes29c1,850$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.36520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-65.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked No57c1,807$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.395135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed Yes3c1,800$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.816247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9770…6474backed Yes5c1,766$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No14c1,766$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.766116.4%10 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf255…11a0backed Yes46c1,698$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.26140%0 W · 14 L-4.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes7c1,673$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.086841.2%28 W · 40 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc135…21b0backed No52c1,555$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.684843.8%21 W · 27 L+8.0wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+64.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes33c1,510$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes4c1,500$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80b9…cedcbacked Yes49c1,481$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.142245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c1d…a6dabacked Yes17c1,437$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeedb…ae36backed No56c1,428$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No72c1,415$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.029442.6%40 W · 54 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc10c…d845backed No69c1,404$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.32445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-18.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x913e…2f02backed Yes8c1,370$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes1c1,368$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes2c1,300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6570%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe43…8c72backed No79c1,199$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.1850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-26.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe656…5e07backed Yes12c1,191$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.564025%10 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x210b…8a57backed Yes60c1,153$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x816e…8263backed Yes43c1,148$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4981618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d75…cf0bbacked Yes7c1,141$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.51010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c1,100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf2db…84eabacked Yes9c1,092$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186d…01e0backed No52c1,067$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.078939.3%35 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe34…a718backed Yes12c1,060$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.81435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d53…0069backed Yes2c1,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.52425%6 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5b…2903backed No48c1,000$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5253627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…e3fabacked Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-75.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes4c1,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.95633.9%19 W · 37 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x199f…3d76backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc05…f600backed Yes35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3508421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf674…f4c8backed Yes24c999.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Yes4c999.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9339.1%3 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e85…1f81backed No49c999.99$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5103946.2%18 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x884d…1da6backed No51c999.99$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+167.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e81…5d10backed Yes30c999.99$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052611.5%3 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed81…82eebacked Yes21c996.54$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.897834.6%27 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93dc…5796backed No50c991.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.841442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+38.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No65c933.45$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.481560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c933$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.972377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes38c914.26$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.3215637.2%58 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68cb…6db8backed No78c912$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.64966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes34c900$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3047514.7%11 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b6…1047backed Yes2c900$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.