TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$295,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$305,852

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec5d…8f70backed Yes1c17,984$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed Yes30c15,351$4,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,561.269046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes1c12,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65557.3%4 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f61…e259backed Yes3c10,497$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.055028%14 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9db7…e0d8backed Yes9c10,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Yes2c10,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c1…d727backed Yes13c7,016$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-75.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No72c5,003$3,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.974763.8%30 W · 17 L+10.3wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+48.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x1681…b1c7backed No65c4,637$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,637.353060%18 W · 12 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+53.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a8a…e4cdbacked Yes24c4,331$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.632330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x827b…5eb7backed Yes4c4,103$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7316…4686backed Yes3c4,102$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6465…f8ddbacked Yes5c4,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190130%0 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x105a…50ddbacked Yes24c3,526$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.532917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-53.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe656…5e07backed Yes6c3,503$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.224025%10 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c3,492$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.441712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x783e…d7c8backed No71c3,357$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.141735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c3,137$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.837919%15 W · 64 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes11c3,000$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.24254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…f586backed Yes29c3,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8702317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce02…73aabacked Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed No75c2,819$2,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.861968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x935c…b84dbacked Yes8c2,600$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.69110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe061…4668backed Yes4c2,564$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes21c2,344$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3379…621dbacked Yes21c2,120$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.731931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacc3…6682backed No56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+61.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes13c1,733$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.41728.3%6 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-69.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed Yes12c1,682$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.66031.7%19 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes9c1,675$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.594418.2%8 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4203…6ff7backed Yes27c1,650$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.49911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-52.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4191backed No51c1,571$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.237231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d7…6beabacked Yes1c1,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf255…11a0backed Yes35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525140%0 W · 14 L-4.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes4c1,404$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.13773.9%3 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc05f…9b56backed No75c1,395$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.649254.3%50 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,369$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.757663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb279…8ba3backed Yes1c1,360$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc10c…d845backed No70c1,214$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.642445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-18.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes1c1,207$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.716740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b3c…c600backed No71c1,206$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.757132.4%23 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe34…a718backed Yes7c1,180$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.81435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25a7…8b7cbacked Yes19c1,177$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd297…2919backed No63c1,174$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.839550.5%48 W · 47 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8afb…d4fbbacked No78c1,157$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.443100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes1c1,111$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.551250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+75%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No79c1,067$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.1210462.5%65 W · 39 L+13.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes11c1,017$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3114732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes36c1,002$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.114320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes2c1,001$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.035633.9%19 W · 37 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ccd…6a1dbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7865…fffdbacked Yes35c1,000$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503215.6%5 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-58%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5e81…5d10backed Yes14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402611.5%3 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc05…f600backed Yes18c999.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1808421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes2c952.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-58.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb256…3f94backed Yes11c910.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.212536%9 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x958f…a83cbacked Yes22c909.99$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.191931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-47.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee25…ad21backed Yes22c893$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.46520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked Yes8c809.85$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.114335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2f…8221backed Yes13c761.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes3c758.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.071915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-79.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Yes13c699.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5339.1%3 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x186d…01e0backed No77c668.19$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.98939.3%35 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c24…ae45backed Yes3c656.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.841811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd937…cb9abacked Yes13c633$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.281118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-68%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x339f…8b5dbacked Yes25c600$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes19c593.32$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1137514.7%11 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3771…c498backed Yes3c520.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56841.2%28 W · 40 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked Yes3c500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked Yes4c470.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.861216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes11c454.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.059920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc60…85c9backed No68c440.68$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.23268.8%22 W · 10 L+7.3wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+96.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No67c434.98$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.5910763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x15d2…fc10backed Yes30c430$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1291225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd349…a466backed Yes20c427.01$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.012114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed Yes36c415$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.87123.9%17 W · 54 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d16…8ac4backed Yes12c403.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecd3…4285backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+29.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcde4…f179backed Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc08c…fa1fbacked Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb171…32f0backed Yes22c399.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904219%8 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced1…280ebacked Yes34c387.71$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.181513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-72.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc89c…36f6backed Yes13c384.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed No76c382$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.681127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb56…5ebebacked Yes6c375.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2980%0 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes25c366.17$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.762377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes17c364$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.88560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+92.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6353…f192backed Yes23c344.58$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.31637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae7…9603backed No76c330$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.56656.1%37 W · 29 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+39.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed No60c308.13$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.454463.6%28 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+40.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9dba…9c3dbacked Yes31c307.96$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Yes24c304.88$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.179442.6%40 W · 54 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91b2…f617backed Yes33c304.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002119%4 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-72.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x899c…d868backed No43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1711020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-58.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1960…ccf0backed No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4951…42e3backed Yes17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c283.43$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1533329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.