Token Launches · resolved market
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0467d010bd9765f0cb70d30a76b85470981c143c611d7d28d4d3f1307447426d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $295,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $305,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec5d…8f70backed Yes | 1c | 17,984$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 30c | 15,351$4,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,561.26 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 1c | 12,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e259backed Yes | 3c | 10,497$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.05 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…e0d8backed Yes | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…d727backed Yes | 13c | 7,016$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No | 72c | 5,003$3,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.97 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +10.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…b1c7backed No | 65c | 4,637$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.35 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8a…e4cdbacked Yes | 24c | 4,331$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…5eb7backed Yes | 4c | 4,103$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7316…4686backed Yes | 3c | 4,102$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…f8ddbacked Yes | 5c | 4,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x105a…50ddbacked Yes | 24c | 3,526$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.53 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe656…5e07backed Yes | 6c | 3,503$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.22 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,492$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783e…d7c8backed No | 71c | 3,357$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 0c | 3,137$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.2 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…f586backed Yes | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce02…73aabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed No | 75c | 2,819$2,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.86 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…b84dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,600$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.69 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…4668backed Yes | 4c | 2,564$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes | 21c | 2,344$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…621dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,120$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.73 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc3…6682backed No | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,733$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.41 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed Yes | 12c | 1,682$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 9c | 1,675$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.59 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4203…6ff7backed Yes | 27c | 1,650$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.49 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed No | 51c | 1,571$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.23 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…11a0backed Yes | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,404$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed No | 75c | 1,395$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.64 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,369$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb279…8ba3backed Yes | 1c | 1,360$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc10c…d845backed No | 70c | 1,214$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.64 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 1,207$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3c…c600backed No | 71c | 1,206$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.75 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…a718backed Yes | 7c | 1,180$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a7…8b7cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,177$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 63c | 1,174$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.83 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afb…d4fbbacked No | 78c | 1,157$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 79c | 1,067$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.12 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,017$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.31 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 36c | 1,002$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.11 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 2c | 1,001$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…6a1dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…fffdbacked Yes | 35c | 1,000$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fe…b350backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -58%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e81…5d10backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed Yes | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes | 2c | 952.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…3f94backed Yes | 11c | 910.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked Yes | 22c | 909.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.19 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…ad21backed Yes | 22c | 893$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 8c | 809.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…8221backed Yes | 13c | 761.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 3c | 758.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yes | 13c | 699.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed No | 77c | 668.19$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.9 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c24…ae45backed Yes | 3c | 656.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd937…cb9abacked Yes | 13c | 633$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -68%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339f…8b5dbacked Yes | 25c | 600$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 19c | 593.32$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3771…c498backed Yes | 3c | 520.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 4c | 470.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 11c | 454.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…85c9backed No | 68c | 440.68$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.2 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 67c | 434.98$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.59 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…fc10backed Yes | 30c | 430$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…a466backed Yes | 20c | 427.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 36c | 415$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…8ac4backed Yes | 12c | 403.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…4285backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…f179backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…fa1fbacked Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…32f0backed Yes | 22c | 399.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…280ebacked Yes | 34c | 387.71$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89c…36f6backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 76c | 382$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb56…5ebebacked Yes | 6c | 375.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 25c | 366.17$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 17c | 364$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6353…f192backed Yes | 23c | 344.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…9603backed No | 76c | 330$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 60c | 308.13$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.45 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dba…9c3dbacked Yes | 31c | 307.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 24c | 304.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…f617backed Yes | 33c | 304.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed No | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1960…ccf0backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…42e3backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 283.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?this page
- Over 10,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Yes won
- Over 15,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Yes won
- Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 40,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 45,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 50,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 55,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?No won
- Over 7000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.