TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x25a7…8b7c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
105
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 55 out of 100; worst Premier League at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT5450%27 W · 27 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nininho Vaz Maia attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$15.2
Will Rio Ferdinand attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+69.6%+$148.52
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+401.9%+$463.59
Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$48.99
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.06
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+519.5%+$853.73
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.08
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.81
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.93
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.58
France vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
France vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+74.7%+$46.51
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.57
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+144.7%+$217.09
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$306.45
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.53
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.77
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$91.11
Brazil vs. Norway: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+93.8%+$30.71
Paraguay vs. France: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$57.92
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+52.3%+$104.4
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$33.33
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.24
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.42
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,215Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.8%+$859.23
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+42.8%+$23.4
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$387.61
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.29
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$11.53
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$9.77
All 12 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick64cpaid-37.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,004Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+25%+$501.05
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$319.86
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+38.9%+$200.99
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$280.83
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$318.83
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$726Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+49.3%+$357.46
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$428Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$428.05
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+47.1%+$136.99
All 9 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+45%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+165.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+119.1%+$119.09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$653Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+211.9%+$1,383.87
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Rockets vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$804Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$804.21
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$218.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+117.4%+$270.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$858Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$242
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverevbacked Jannik Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+25%+$13.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$704Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$703.69
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.