Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d2787cb8aed975d092b2799ed6f4083e9445f7420cdc09e9d47e7d54356c6cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,621,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,156,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,621,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,530 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a81…d324backed Yes | 0c | 71,538,911$151,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151,603.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…ba82backed Yes | 0c | 19,999,999$55,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,611.87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0134…92e1backed Yes | 0c | 14,604,414$49,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,281.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…2ee7backed Yes | 0c | 13,497,888$19,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,128.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 2,719,118$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.12 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 0c | 2,639,942$3,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,322.9 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48a6…2c94backed Yes | 0c | 2,472,795$6,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,535.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac19…03ebbacked Yes | 0c | 2,339,903$7,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,050.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc381…a661backed Yes | 0c | 2,042,724$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 1,554,024$2,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,655.78 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…ac7ebacked Yes | 0c | 1,517,991$5,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,790.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f9…d09dbacked Yes | 0c | 1,400,000$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked Yes | 0c | 1,210,774$2,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.95 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd9…2835backed Yes | 0c | 1,175,455$2,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes | 1c | 1,120,466$7,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,509.77 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5a…b691backed Yes | 0c | 1,111,111$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…4343backed Yes | 0c | 1,028,821$5,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,036.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked Yes | 0c | 964,490$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.08 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes | 0c | 939,958$2,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 18cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…031fbacked Yes | 0c | 901,333$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,704 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 2c | 775,573$14,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,627.9 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x959a…7b64backed Yes | 0c | 726,040$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…81e8backed Yes | 0c | 691,001$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes | 0c | 610,000$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…21cdbacked Yes | 0c | 609,931$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…5b36backed Yes | 0c | 600,001$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,459.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 1c | 555,556$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.99 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed Yes | 0c | 555,555$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.11 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…f810backed Yes | 0c | 548,800$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 0c | 510,450$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 0c | 503,595$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.01 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…bb66backed Yes | 0c | 500,400$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.01 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e25…8d35backed Yes | 0c | 500,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 32cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…384ebacked Yes | 0c | 492,916$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed Yes | 0c | 486,462$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.92 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa641…7ec8backed Yes | 0c | 437,489$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 0c | 435,551$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.39 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa079…45aabacked Yes | 0c | 405,667$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a0…acdabacked Yes | 0c | 402,667$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 1c | 400,000$5,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,931.38 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…8694backed Yes | 0c | 385,892$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x554b…74ccbacked Yes | 0c | 363,920$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…48c3backed Yes | 0c | 337,000$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…4fe1backed Yes | 0c | 326,319$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 0c | 310,750$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked Yes | 0c | 308,608$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51c8…b0bdbacked Yes | 0c | 298,703$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes | 0c | 294,204$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…cb27backed Yes | 0c | 286,430$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…e4b3backed Yes | 0c | 285,000$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…523ebacked Yes | 0c | 278,726$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ab…c1c2backed Yes | 0c | 278,000$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…763ebacked Yes | 0c | 273,633$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…ad7ebacked Yes | 0c | 266,980$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5336…625ebacked Yes | 0c | 266,950$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6790…c9e9backed Yes | 0c | 266,607$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…f7e1backed Yes | 0c | 249,732$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.49 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…6bbbbacked Yes | 0c | 247,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2e…09b9backed Yes | 0c | 245,667$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…e98cbacked Yes | 0c | 232,950$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…79eebacked Yes | 1c | 228,200$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4568…d9f6backed Yes | 0c | 216,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 2c | 215,996$3,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,972.36 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…1c11backed Yes | 0c | 211,885$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +587%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked Yes | 0c | 211,333$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +8.4wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +48%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…ea9dbacked Yes | 0c | 205,533$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…246cbacked Yes | 0c | 203,665$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf563…fe1abacked Yes | 0c | 203,261$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…913cbacked Yes | 0c | 201,500$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa096…27e6backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f6…fba9backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dff…947cbacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…77f5backed Yes | 0c | 196,187$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…8de6backed Yes | 0c | 193,167$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c6…6043backed Yes | 0c | 190,500$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…2bf3backed Yes | 0c | 187,218$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d5…72ffbacked Yes | 0c | 185,413$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc144…fbc2backed Yes | 0c | 181,948$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 0c | 181,667$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9dcfbacked Yes | 0c | 180,610$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9d…e88bbacked Yes | 0c | 179,258$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…8edebacked Yes | 0c | 178,000$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…600cbacked Yes | 0c | 173,951$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…e03bbacked Yes | 0c | 163,333$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 0c | 158,333$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…486cbacked Yes | 0c | 157,500$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c9…7afcbacked Yes | 0c | 151,485$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a67…00abbacked Yes | 1c | 148,289$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7928…f432backed Yes | 0c | 147,721$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…f146backed Yes | 0c | 147,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…c312backed Yes | 1c | 140,205$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Yes | 0c | 139,282$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…de25backed Yes | 0c | 138,750$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014a…2eb8backed Yes | 0c | 132,571$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76a…2986backed Yes | 0c | 130,109$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d33…aa06backed Yes | 0c | 129,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5160…b803backed Yes | 0c | 129,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…8ae9backed Yes | 0c | 125,117$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b33…ceb5backed Yes | 0c | 125,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…cdbfbacked Yes | 0c | 124,960$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.68 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?No won
- Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?No won
- Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.