Middle East · resolved market
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a21e81fe56f92ffc029ebdd92dda7a7d45f0c65e10f8f4b3c8d047c62211b47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $506,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $496,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $506,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 5c | 33,749$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.41 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf74…d8bcbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +551.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 4c | 17,865$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +190%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…1247backed Yes | 0c | 16,295$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 5c | 14,046$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.74 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…9514backed Yes | 9c | 8,548$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.77 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…d69ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,199$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.76 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe43…2632backed Yes | 1c | 5,870$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 3c | 5,818$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e1…61d0backed Yes | 2c | 5,728$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x053d…caedbacked Yes | 9c | 5,718$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.71 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 4c | 5,052$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.08 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.96 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,915$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…8ae9backed Yes | 1c | 4,632$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,431$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.46 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,358$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,146$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 3,976$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.87 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 4c | 3,527$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.83 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 4c | 3,437$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 3,337$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…e98bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,194$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…a153backed Yes | 18c | 3,146$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…109dbacked Yes | 20c | 3,057$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.57 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,728$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,647$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.07 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…01d6backed Yes | 5c | 2,630$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.37 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed Yes | 4c | 2,512$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 12c | 2,414$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed Yes | 20c | 2,248$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.23 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.12 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 1c | 1,813$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,796$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08af…bb75backed Yes | 2c | 1,657$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +564.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…575cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,532$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.87 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +390.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…d5d7backed Yes | 5c | 1,461$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 20c | 1,400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…986abacked Yes | 1c | 1,352$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 4c | 1,286$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,284$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.47 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…740abacked Yes | 4c | 1,233$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked Yes | 12c | 1,233$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,198$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,184$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,132$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,119$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.35 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf6…2ecdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,118$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b2…f7a2backed Yes | 4c | 1,083$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef7…dfcebacked Yes | 14c | 1,072$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +66%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd259…76fdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,022$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 80c | 987.96$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.68 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…68c2backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 14cpaid | +926.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 72c | 842.56$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.33 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 7c | 830$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 829.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 803.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…e9a7backed Yes | 10c | 775.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 4c | 687.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 13c | 514$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 8c | 511.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 17c | 499.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 4c | 499.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 19c | 485.39$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 15c | 474.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…5dc4backed Yes | 3c | 439.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed Yes | 14c | 434.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6917…fde0backed Yes | 5c | 417.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 79c | 410.58$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 4c | 407.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…cafebacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…45e6backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…89ccbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…fcafbacked Yes | 20c | 384.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…fce6backed Yes | 12c | 368.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ff…232cbacked Yes | 4c | 363.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…3540backed Yes | 3c | 333.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…9dfbbacked Yes | 8c | 284.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked Yes | 16c | 281.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 10c | 280.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c1…11afbacked Yes | 12c | 274.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd196…15cebacked Yes | 12c | 274.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…7000backed Yes | 10c | 260.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…5bf9backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 7c | 235.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed Yes | 16c | 225.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?No won
- Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.