Middle East · resolved market
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fd34574748b52ffce77be26503321c34e0afbe6c2d16efc5a10b0b488b8ce5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 4c | 9,933$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.27 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 3c | 8,350$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.59 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 15c | 8,155$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.56 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 15c | 6,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 14c | 4,757$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.39 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,411$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 7c | 3,350$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.68 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 11c | 2,971$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.81 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 3c | 2,705$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,401$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,201$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6300backed Yes | 14c | 2,144$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…1788backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,700$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 19c | 1,455$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.63 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…3873backed Yes | 13c | 1,300$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 20c | 1,245$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.59 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 1,208$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 8c | 1,206$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 7c | 1,200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 23c | 1,166$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e52…d278backed Yes | 1c | 1,150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 7c | 1,091$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…7ad5backed Yes | 13c | 1,031$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 1,002$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 4c | 875$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…69edbacked No | 79c | 865.06$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…2dadbacked Yes | 12c | 840$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…9ff1backed No | 70c | 830.33$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.53 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 8c | 757.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 14c | 638.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 634.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 77c | 620.97$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.82 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 523.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed No | 78c | 515.8$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1289…42aabacked Yes | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bb…8dd5backed Yes | 10c | 498.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 16c | 436.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 11c | 428.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…690dbacked Yes | 27c | 401.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 7c | 399.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 12c | 395$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 14c | 321.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 310.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…a4f9backed Yes | 14c | 299.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 289.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…5d01backed Yes | 35c | 283.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f1…d56bbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +185.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…67f2backed Yes | 48c | 273.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 28c | 260$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 19c | 239.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc6…1cedbacked Yes | 8c | 238.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed Yes | 15c | 220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…fec1backed Yes | 22c | 217.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 12c | 208$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 195 | 34.4%67 W · 128 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…844fbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…1b4ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…dec0backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 154.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…a473backed Yes | 15c | 145$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +6.2wins | +0.27per pick | 42cpaid | +202.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…3774backed Yes | 37c | 135.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 74c | 134.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 10c | 124.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d38…1b41backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…4e71backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…af94backed Yes | 14c | 90.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…9f1fbacked Yes | 19c | 90.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 13c | 89.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…6745backed Yes | 31c | 81.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…9d74backed No | 70c | 77.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked No | 80c | 62.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x653b…c68ebacked Yes | 28c | 56.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…bef3backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…6c10backed Yes | 25c | 47.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5c52backed No | 75c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…645bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?No won
- Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.