TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$198,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$186,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,994 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes4c9,933$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.2716553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes3c8,350$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.5922529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8633…a08dbacked Yes15c8,155$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.564136.6%15 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes15c6,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88026429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes14c4,757$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.3920823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes2c3,411$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6217018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes7c3,350$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.689825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes11c2,971$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.8131241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes3c2,705$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8638237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes3c2,401$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2815629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,201$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.611,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6300backed Yes14c2,144$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5088…1788backed Yes2c2,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes15c1,700$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24820749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes19c1,455$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.6335631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7707…3873backed Yes13c1,300$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.051428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-29.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes20c1,245$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.5919119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c1,208$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.493717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes8c1,206$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f47…9387backed Yes7c1,200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805525.5%14 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf99f…8742backed Yes23c1,166$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2703330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e52…d278backed Yes1c1,150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Yes7c1,091$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd146…7ad5backed Yes13c1,031$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.761915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes4c1,002$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7812325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes3c1,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3316041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes4c875$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7410737.4%40 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1690…69edbacked No79c865.06$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.331266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes12c840$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.63751.4%19 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb99…9ff1backed No70c830.33$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.534920.4%10 W · 39 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes8c757.52$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0336634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab0…9578backed Yes14c638.64$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.411330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-33.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes5c634.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.182036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No77c620.97$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8235355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes3c600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.86232.3%20 W · 42 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes5c523.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90bf…3348backed No78c515.8$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.86633.3%22 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1289…42aabacked Yes12c499.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602536%9 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bb…8dd5backed Yes10c498.65$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.37520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes16c436.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703613.9%5 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes11c428.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49623.2%2 W · 60 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1826…690dbacked Yes27c401.39$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.39119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-56%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes7c399.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.49948.5%48 W · 51 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes12c395$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.356543.1%28 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa204…bf99backed Yes14c321.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454515.6%7 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c310.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.621693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3516231.5%51 W · 111 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5428…a4f9backed Yes14c299.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes7c289.13$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8135921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x191e…5d01backed Yes35c283.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f1…d56bbacked Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+185.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3955…67f2backed Yes48c273.43$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53d3…ba87backed Yes28c260$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.555238.5%20 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes19c239.81$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457337%27 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc6…1cedbacked Yes8c238.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed Yes15c220$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.27935.4%28 W · 51 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66f4…fec1backed Yes22c217.88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes12c208$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1219534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40a2…844fbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2651…1b4ebacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202733.3%9 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ba7…dec0backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c154.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2777636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5693…a473backed Yes15c145$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.752369.6%16 W · 7 L+6.2wins+0.27per pick42cpaid+202.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe59d…3774backed Yes37c135.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No74c134.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.437038.6%27 W · 43 L-10.3wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-31%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes10c124.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.948923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d38…1b41backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde03…4e71backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes12c99.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1229129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8613…af94backed Yes14c90.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda24…9f1fbacked Yes19c90.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes13c89.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6111257.1%64 W · 48 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4f7…6745backed Yes31c81.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa61b…9d74backed No70c77.79$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.342343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0386…e95ebacked No80c62.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61275%9 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x653b…c68ebacked Yes28c56.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66d9…bef3backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.64122%9 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d7…eb3bbacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.56445.3%29 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3673…6c10backed Yes25c47.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.591136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+78.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be4…dcbbbacked No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147864.1%50 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed No80c29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.82642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c60…5c52backed No75c27.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.792462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.412951.9%67 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.229254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd316…645bbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.