Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0be7b1f19f9b658778c2be7e6bc67596a00f347ab64392d0f5d387534c7c3b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,811,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,880,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,811,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,332 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 34c | 148,466$50,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,414.89 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 45c | 82,636$36,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,969.01 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 63c | 81,883$51,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,071.96 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 43c | 64,262$27,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,710.11 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 37c | 56,325$20,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,953.38 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 48c | 54,444$26,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,132.26 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 40c | 53,217$21,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,178.68 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed No | 72c | 51,753$37,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,620.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 22c | 51,450$11,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,250.9 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked Yes | 0c | 45,950$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 28c | 45,234$12,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,608.77 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 58c | 42,996$24,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,733.25 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 19c | 42,600$7,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,686.12 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 28c | 40,355$11,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,357.1 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 74c | 40,232$29,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,632.64 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 39,517$19,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,497.23 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 32c | 37,991$12,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,080.57 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 34c | 36,488$12,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,310.89 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 44c | 36,063$15,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,186.71 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 40c | 36,000$14,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,359.97 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 49c | 35,942$17,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,360.44 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 62c | 33,923$21,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,137.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 52c | 32,766$16,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,779.98 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked Yes | 68c | 31,783$21,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,746.25 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 54c | 31,196$16,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,862.18 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 40c | 30,471$12,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,326.97 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 30c | 29,415$8,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,707.55 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 41c | 28,912$11,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,981.38 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 33c | 28,440$9,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,447.63 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…534bbacked No | 60c | 28,226$16,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,386.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…05ecbacked Yes | 20c | 26,862$5,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,383.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed No | 26c | 26,759$6,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,934.12 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 26c | 26,735$6,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,855.59 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…d6aabacked No | 76c | 26,528$20,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,363.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 42c | 25,741$10,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,891.68 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 60c | 25,129$15,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,008.21 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 48c | 24,345$11,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,754.79 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 33c | 23,935$8,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,929.02 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 39c | 23,707$9,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,132.9 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 57c | 23,504$13,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,363.73 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 37c | 23,272$8,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,672.97 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 21,717$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.39 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 60c | 21,442$12,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,596.83 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…be4ebacked No | 74c | 20,624$15,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,274.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 43c | 20,559$8,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,758.05 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 63c | 20,375$12,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,906.15 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 38c | 18,968$7,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,300.83 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 51c | 18,427$9,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,370.15 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 47c | 18,302$8,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,636.45 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 60c | 18,050$10,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,815.12 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked No | 35c | 16,925$5,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,004.83 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce85…ccd7backed No | 80c | 16,683$13,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,337.81 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 25c | 16,625$4,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,085.85 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…2289backed No | 73c | 15,883$11,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…3e50backed No | 27c | 15,782$4,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,442.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 31c | 15,212$4,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,673.47 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes | 57c | 15,000$8,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,516.81 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Yes | 48c | 14,296$6,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,931.52 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +235.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 66c | 14,112$9,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,291.81 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…1ba4backed No | 40c | 14,078$5,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,419.47 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed No | 79c | 14,006$11,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,895.94 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 14,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 31c | 13,931$4,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,307.78 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 18c | 13,777$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,257.08 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 48c | 13,740$6,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,659.69 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 30c | 13,372$4,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,039.57 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 50c | 13,155$6,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,640.71 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…58c3backed Yes | 2c | 12,818$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 24c | 12,579$3,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,074.83 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked No | 29c | 12,459$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,893.85 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed No | 72c | 11,829$8,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,328.48 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 33c | 11,701$3,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.15 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 23c | 11,700$2,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,696 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 29c | 11,497$3,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,380.13 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked No | 26c | 11,479$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,478.82 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 4c | 11,111$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.44 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 9c | 11,111$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,111.01 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 71c | 11,000$7,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,787.16 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 46c | 11,000$5,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,101.5 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…3479backed No | 48c | 10,763$5,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,589.55 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked Yes | 1c | 10,598$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 76c | 10,566$8,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,055.59 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 30c | 10,487$3,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,149.16 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 13c | 10,476$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,064.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…0b73backed Yes | 24c | 10,442$2,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,535.94 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked Yes | 48c | 10,156$4,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,904.06 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 60c | 10,042$6,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,025.89 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed No | 57c | 9,894$5,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,283.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…033abacked No | 77c | 9,845$7,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,252.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 20c | 9,526$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,618.19 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 58c | 9,509$5,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,005.29 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175f…374cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,184$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.64 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -88%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 63c | 9,060$5,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,679.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 67c | 9,057$6,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,957.39 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 55c | 9,006$4,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,953.34 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d19…fb97backed Yes | 18c | 8,928$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.03 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 60c | 8,907$5,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600.94 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 32c | 8,873$2,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,863.33 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?No won
- Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?No won
- Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.