TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6326…01d6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Commodities at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT3613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.17
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.5
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.8
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$94
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Sharjah announces secession from UAE by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.2
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.5
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+152%+$152.02
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.27
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.28
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.37
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.46
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.98
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+286.6%+$362.01
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.59
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.96
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+973.1%+$1,011.1
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+435.6%+$209.09
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.46
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.3
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+150%+$60
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+400%+$98
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-48.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.78
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.58
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.