Middle East · resolved market
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a77d00f9f4a9a588a79d72a27cbdd07f8de96882b3d710badecd1b26e08764b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $564,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $564,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 60,308$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.13 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 0c | 30,647$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 25,597$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 1c | 23,433$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.82 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e206backed Yes | 0c | 22,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 0c | 14,660$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 1c | 12,218$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.04 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,770$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 1c | 7,770$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,602$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 0c | 6,828$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,459$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 0c | 6,224$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,218$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 1c | 6,200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6300backed Yes | 3c | 6,105$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 5,790$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 0c | 5,569$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…f63abacked Yes | 2c | 5,449$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…e766backed Yes | 0c | 5,003$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +249.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,474$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff8…973dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,849$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc5…0963backed Yes | 1c | 3,834$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…6db2backed Yes | 1c | 3,798$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 1cpaid | +448.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5a…2e45backed Yes | 3c | 3,582$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…282fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,430$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +597.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1593backed Yes | 1c | 3,050$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 0c | 3,039$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a39…afebbacked Yes | 1c | 2,907$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +802.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x195a…b307backed Yes | 1c | 2,748$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 1c | 2,708$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 2,555$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,534$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…8f0bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,367$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 2c | 2,363$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,266$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…9e9abacked Yes | 0c | 2,264$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 0c | 2,229$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,060$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 1c | 1,986$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…c577backed Yes | 5c | 1,938$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…4f15backed Yes | 1c | 1,907$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 4c | 1,884$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 1,875$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,624$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae1…c13ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,614$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…f9abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,589$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,559$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…16cfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,376$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,375$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…d176backed Yes | 6c | 1,310$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Yes | 1c | 1,247$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 2c | 1,219$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed Yes | 6c | 1,193$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x181a…fff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 5c | 999.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8f…ad42backed Yes | 1c | 970$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…5a02backed Yes | 15c | 892.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +196.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…f2d9backed Yes | 12c | 841.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…6f64backed Yes | 1c | 838.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 3cpaid | +2,470.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…01d6backed Yes | 2c | 834.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 814.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 799.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1561…3897backed Yes | 2c | 702.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…8ee4backed Yes | 3c | 455.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +3,103%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 437.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 407$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 9c | 401.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816a…8df4backed Yes | 4c | 340.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd4…5127backed Yes | 13c | 180.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c3…0648backed Yes | 15c | 149.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…9c00backed Yes | 22c | 44.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?this page
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.