Middle East · resolved market
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x061d30d493488624cb80cce362179251bd837ea6a0664ed4d7fd6a126ab8caa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $674,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $674,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 0c | 84,597$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…6f64backed Yes | 0c | 82,354$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 3cpaid | +2,470.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 64,926$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.35 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 0c | 62,814$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.83 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 1c | 35,922$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.58 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…47c5backed Yes | 0c | 17,809$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 0c | 15,988$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 0c | 14,234$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…d8c3backed Yes | 0c | 13,825$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 13,600$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 12,500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…2edbbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 0c | 11,027$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 0c | 10,169$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 0c | 9,561$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,707$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,952$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 0c | 5,800$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4907…cdc2backed Yes | 1c | 5,419$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 4,470$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 3,847$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 0c | 3,718$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 3,204$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…e08dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…9e9abacked Yes | 0c | 2,758$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 0c | 2,654$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 2,566$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,920$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a39…afebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,862$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +802.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1593backed Yes | 1c | 1,738$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 1c | 1,657$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d0…be4dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,526$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +515.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,186$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes | 1c | 1,104$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0799…725cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,088$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,032$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…6db2backed Yes | 2c | 1,004$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 1cpaid | +448.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…7c8cbacked Yes | 3c | 555.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?this page
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?No won
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.