TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x355c…e6d4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
297
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Commodities, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST10347.6%49 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 103 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jacksonville State vs. Florida Internationalbacked Jacksonville State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$100
TCU vs. BYUbacked BYU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+66.7%+$66.67
Auburn vs. Vanderbiltbacked Vanderbilt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+49.3%+$49.25
Jacksonville State vs. UTEPbacked Jacksonville State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+96.1%+$192.16
Arizona vs. Coloradobacked Colorado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Florida State (-10.5)backed Wake Forest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Georgia Tech (-5.5)backed Georgia Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Arkansas (-4.5)backed Mississippi State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$104.08
Duke vs. Clemsonbacked Duke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$195.51
Vanderbilt vs. Texasbacked Vanderbilt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Tulane vs. UTSA Roadrunnersbacked Tulane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Arizona State (-7.5)backed Houston · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$177.36
Texas A&M vs. LSUbacked LSU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Spread: Texas (-7.5)backed Mississippi State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$184.62
Spread: Cincinnati (-3.5)backed Cincinnati · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$104.08
Baylor vs. Cincinnatibacked Cincinnati · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Missouri vs. Vanderbiltbacked Vanderbilt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$173.73
Spread: South Florida (-6.5)backed South Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: SMU Mustangs (-3.5)backed SMU Mustangs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
O/U 52.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
South Alabama vs. Georgia Statebacked Georgia State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Missouri State vs. New Mexico Statebacked New Mexico State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Techbacked Louisiana Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Spread: Florida Gators (-9.5)backed Mississippi State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$197.76
Spread: North Texas (-4.5)backed North Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$197.76
Showing 25 of 103 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT8741.4%36 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 87 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$293
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.2
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.8
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$302.1
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$479Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$479
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+83.1%+$83.1
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+61.5%+$61.47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,010Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+44.1%+$445.22
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+83.4%+$16.68
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+51.6%+$51.58
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.76
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.46
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+47%+$187.9
Showing 25 of 87 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$101
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+101%+$100.5
Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$193
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+110.5%+$110.46
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$550
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+133.4%+$533.47
Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+58.7%+$29.37
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+73.9%+$147.77
Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+54%+$53.99
Will Russia enter Novopavlivka by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+47.1%+$72.25
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.89
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$628Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$353.07
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+80.7%+$80.68
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$171.98
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$195.21
Will Putin meet with Trump before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT2166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$58.73
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$504Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$504
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+86.1%+$259.42
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$415Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+61.7%+$256.05
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+96.8%+$483.73
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$403Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+53.5%+$215.48
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$615Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+58.3%+$358.51
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+115.6%+$17.36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$289.52
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.8
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$103.04
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+91%+$151.42
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$154.44
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+36%+$126.13
Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$199.37
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$201
All 21 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$412Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$411.85
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+33.7%+$72.24
Will Michael Anton be next National Security Advisor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$700
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+107.8%+$377.24
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$690Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$690.34
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+298.6%+$735.18
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+58.2%+$322.12
Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+218.9%+$437.79
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+81.4%+$157.13
Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Commerce Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$155
Will Trump nominate David Bernhardt for Interior Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$25
Will Trump nominate Mike Pompeo for Defense Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$255
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$200
Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$233.6
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+488.2%+$1,230.35
All 19 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-61.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+278.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,642Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+52.3%+$858.35
Will Australia win the 3rd most gold medals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+505.5%+$505.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bad Bunny be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+66.6%+$171.9
Will Rihanna be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 15 or more inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+79.6%+$39.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.