Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Mike Pompeo for Defense Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b710ec378c228023a290d5ed335c3a03072e7d6419dab9dcf05d45022923bb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 21,191$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes | 42c | 5,116$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.55 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 38c | 3,378$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.45 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 35c | 3,208$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361f…0fc2backed Yes | 26c | 2,961$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed No | 68c | 2,284$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.62 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes | 33c | 2,030$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.2 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,563$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…cb04backed No | 61c | 1,306$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…26bdbacked No | 52c | 1,242$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.76 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 40c | 1,167$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.67 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…e8c8backed No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 63c | 934.28$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 783.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked No | 32c | 724.28$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.51 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed No | 56c | 714.28$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.28 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 10c | 623.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes | 11c | 600$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 71c | 599.47$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.56 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 592.15$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.11 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 63c | 588$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.34 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x544c…430cbacked No | 76c | 570.86$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 53c | 554.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.85 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 51c | 500.18$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked No | 50c | 499.16$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.74 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…78e6backed No | 59c | 495.98$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 70c | 473.36$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.82 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c3…3128backed Yes | 44c | 458.48$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 60c | 369$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…1ee7backed Yes | 23c | 366$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e63…4268backed No | 71c | 325.44$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 53c | 323.11$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…00a2backed Yes | 32c | 313.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 65c | 292.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked No | 69c | 286.13$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…8b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 273.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 37c | 266.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04f7…346fbacked Yes | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…e49cbacked Yes | 32c | 221.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed No | 49c | 203.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…d797backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…4456backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…1f58backed No | 57c | 179.02$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 45c | 171.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…0c54backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…90ccbacked Yes | 32c | 154.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…b694backed No | 50c | 138.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…6d1dbacked No | 62c | 118.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…6350backed No | 68c | 107.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 69c | 103.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…31ebbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…3802backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…f8b9backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 68c | 77.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 71.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…2747backed Yes | 50c | 62.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…f991backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…4a36backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…3bccbacked No | 74c | 54.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…2ad6backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4586…5215backed Yes | 54c | 46.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…b781backed Yes | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 60c | 41.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…c9a9backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…c1a6backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27be…c063backed Yes | 52c | 28.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…83afbacked Yes | 44c | 27.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c06…9d48backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…0ceabacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…d0e2backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Mike Pompeo for Defense Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Miller for Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Joni Ernst for Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Mike Gallagher for Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Mike Waltz for Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert O’Brien for Defense Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Tom Cotton for Defense Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.