TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x415c…3c94

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
588
Categories scored
37
Categories below 50
25

Best Category: Tennis, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 57 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST8529.4%25 W · 60 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 85 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.5
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55.13
Trump out as President in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Trump endorse Eric Adams?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$39.27
Will Elon register the America Party before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.56
US government shutdown in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+250.5%+$464.55
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+733.3%+$88
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$22.4
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will Trump visit Israel before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.4
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.67
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$62
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.8
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Another US military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$24.8
Will Donald Trump issue 15-19 executive orders in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.24
Will Suez Canal traffic recover to pre-Houthi levels before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.13
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.48
The 'Bill' Epstein Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.99
Showing 25 of 85 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2025, EDT6026.7%16 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leicester City be relegated?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.8
Todd Boehly removed as Chelsea Chairman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$18.37
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT+195.3%+$66.38
Will Manchester United beat Tottenham?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$63.4
Will Manchester United vs. Tottenham end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$12.25
Will Tottenham beat Manchester United?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT+217.5%+$34.24
Will Ipswich Town beat Aston Villa?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT+31.6%+$12
Will Aston Villa beat Ipswich Town?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT+108.5%+$38.5
Will Manchester City beat Arsenal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$40
Real Madrid vs. Atalanta: UEFA Super Cupbacked Atalanta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$11
Will France win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+132.6%+$46.29
Olympic Men's Soccer Final: Spain vs. Francebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+143.9%+$56.05
Will Morocco win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
Berhalter sacked before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$15.5
Colombia wins Copa America 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$85.2
Argentina wins Copa America 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2024, EDT+78%+$221.86
Will another player be Euro 2024 top scorer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$175.62
Will Cody Gakpo be Euro 2024 top scorer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT+433%+$813.42
Will Harry Kane be Euro 2024 top scorer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$28.82
Will Alvaro Morata be Euro 2024 top scorer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$26.62
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$446Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT+348.4%+$1,553.97
Will another team win the 2024 Euros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.13
Will Jude Bellingham be Euro 2024 top scorer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$53.74
Will England win the 2024 Euros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$388.62
Will the Netherlands win the 2024 Euros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$196.66
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST5932.2%19 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 59 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$185.64
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.75
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the July meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.2
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$118.59
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+270.1%+$293.39
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+292.2%+$299.49
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.19
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.16
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.62
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+270.6%+$294.25
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+205.3%+$136.36
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$82.82
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$198.99
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$446Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+193.5%+$862.98
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.45
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$142.71
Will the next Pope be from Europe?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$66.66
Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.36
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.08
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.94
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,149.51
Will the NDP win 9 or more seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.36
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+150%+$60.6
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$653Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$653.46
Showing 25 of 59 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT4926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dillon Gabriel be the Browns QB2 for Week 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+387.8%+$60.29
Will Kenny Pickett be the Browns QB2 for Week 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.36
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+203%+$26.8
Will the Jets draft a QB in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.69
Will the Browns draft Shedeur Sanders?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.99
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+50.2%+$20.05
Will 1 QB get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.4
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.85
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+395%+$39.9
NFL Draft: 1. Ward 2. Hunter 3. Carter 4. Campbell backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.73
Will Shedeur Sanders be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.34
Will the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft get traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.98
Joe Milton traded before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+228.9%+$29.9
Will the Vikings resign Sam Darnold?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.19
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST+172.2%+$22.13
Will Kevin O'Connell win NFL Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$11.53
Will Jared Verse win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$16.43
Joe Burrow and Olivia Holzmacher break up this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+203.2%+$24.36
Will C.J. Stroud win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Patrick Mahomes win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will the Bears hire Ben Johnson as their next head coach?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+146.3%+$14.85
Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$21.06
Will a rookie QB win during wildcard weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST-100%-$49
Will the Vikings win the NFC North?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$24.26
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Sep 4, 2025, EDT3920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Syria security deal before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.97
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Israel strikes Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.18
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.02
Will the Iranian regime fall before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$186.93
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+150%+$120
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+173.3%+$349.41
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.7
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+82.1%+$54.1
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+298.7%+$113.13
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.31
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.06
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.2
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$53
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+63.1%+$19.35
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11.5
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11.11
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15.8
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12
ICC issues an arrest warrant for Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$12
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.45
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.4
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT3231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Olympics — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$63.7
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$203.05
USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$14.66
Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$30
Will the USA win gold in the Men’s 4x400m Relay?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$23.98
Olympic Men’s Basketball: Germany vs. Serbiabacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$86.05
Will Ana Patricia Silva & Lisboa Duda (BRA) win Gold in Beach Volleyball?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$37.08
Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 200m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT+334.8%+$77
Will Germany win Gold in Men's Basketball?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.01
Olympic Basketball: Germany vs. Francebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT+212.5%+$64.6
Will Michael Norman (USA) win gold in the Men’s 400m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$16
Olympic Basketball: USA (-27.5) vs. Brazil Spreadbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT+108.3%+$51.98
Will Julien Alfred (LCA) win gold in 200m W?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$29
Will Gabrielle Thomas (USA) win gold in 200m W?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$29
Will Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) win Gold in 1500m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT+127.3%+$56
Olympic Basketball: Canada vs. Francebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT+316.7%+$148.2
Olympic Basketball: Australia vs. Serbiabacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$58
Olympic Basketball: Greece vs Germanybacked Greece · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
Simone Biles 3 gold medals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2024, EDT+255.2%+$150.41
Simone Biles wins 5 or more gold medals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$37.69
Will Noah Lyles (USA) win Gold in 100m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2024, EDT+284.6%+$73.99
Will Kishane Thompson (JAM) win Gold in 100m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2024, EDT+150%+$59.98
Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$26
Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
Will Sha’Carri Richardson (USA) win gold in 100m W?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2024, EDT+257.1%+$59.58
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3016.7%5 W · 25 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-41.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Infinex launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.24
Will lighter perform an airdrop by September 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.93
Plasma >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.84
Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.65
250+ pump.fun graduated tokens on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$7.98
Rainbow airdrop in Q2 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.32
Hyperliquid Up or Down on June 25?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.75
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.3
Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$36.77
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11.05
Avail airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$16.61
$POPCAT listed on Binance or Coinbase in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$31.75
Aleo airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$37.96
Jumper airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$22.24
Pump.fun airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$16.42
Farcaster airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$14.54
Berachain airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$31.65
Rabby airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12.03
Linea airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$16.79
Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+678.2%+$82.79
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$10.7
Will Dogecoin reach $0.55 before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$17.3
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST+130.3%+$16.98
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT2420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Elio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $20-23m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+203%+$67
Will 'Shadow Force' gross between $1.6-2m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.17
"Sinners" Rotten Tomatoes score >95?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.57
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 3m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+303.5%+$125.07
Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.72
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10.17
Will 'Sing Sing' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+125.8%+$19.5
'Wicked' grosses 2x more than 'Gladiator 2' on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$10.04
Will 'Red One' gross more than $27m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$25.5
Will 'Red One' gross between $21-24m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$10.1
Will 'Red One' gross between $24-27m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$18.3
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$17.84
Will 'Terrifier 3' gross less than $16m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.89
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+129.7%+$19.47
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$13.09
Will 'Transformers One' gross less than $35-42m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$15.45
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $75m and $85m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.88
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2024, EDT+286.4%+$29.65
Will 'It Ends with Us' gross less than $40m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$37.29
Will 'It Ends with Us' gross more than $44m on its opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$56.88
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross over $90m 2nd weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$42.36
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $84m and $90m 2nd weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$30.53
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross less than $84m 2nd weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.1
Inside Out 2 opening bigger than Toy Story 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$19.99
All 24 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2025, EDT2412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-51.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Tweets — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.75
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.71
Will Trump tweet 3-4 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$10.16
Will Trump tweet less than 3 times Dec 6-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$16.71
Will trump tweet 3-4 times Nov 29-Dec 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST-100%-$15.73
Will Trump tweet 90 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.7
Will Trump tweet 25-29 times September 27-October 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$21.85
Will Trump tweet 10-14 times September 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$19.6
Will Trump tweet 5-9 times September 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$24.22
Trump posts 30-34 times on X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$12.65
Will Elon tweet 180 or more times?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.8
Trump posts 40 or more times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.58
Trump posts 50-99 times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$16.59
Will Elon tweet between 80-99 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2024, EDT+225.1%+$77.03
Trump posts 20-29 times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2024, EDT+293.6%+$70.87
Will Elon tweet between 110-119 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet between 100-109 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$23.47
Trump posts 40-49 times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$14.05
Trump posts 10-19 times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$31.4
Will Trump tweet 10 or more times this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2024, EDT+348.8%+$46.63
Will Trump post 11-15 times this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.96
Will Elon tweet 130 or more times?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2024, EDT-100%-$36.21
Andrew Tate posts 120-139 times?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$16
Andrew Tate posts 100-119 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$14.5
All 24 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST190%0 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.23
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$134.51
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.23
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.6
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.37
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$210.1
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.49
Will Trump try and fire Powell before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.12
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$231.97
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$316.45
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.8
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.3
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$19.2
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$74.61
Fed rate hike in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$12.06
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$66
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$79.17
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$70.75
All 19 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-41.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$439.04
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Trump x Putin talk before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+70.9%+$8.3
Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,072Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,072.4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.22
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$536Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$535.66
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.12
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$414.23
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$554Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+190.4%+$1,054.23
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+104.6%+$211.04
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$8.8
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+112.8%+$26.5
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$39.99
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$21.1
Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.99
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$39.57
Tim Pool subpoenaed in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.1
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1520%3 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NBA competitor raise >$3b in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.95
Will Pacers vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.1
Will De’Andre Hunter win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+204.2%+$23.49
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Rebounds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will another player lead the NBA in Rebounds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+252%+$48.85
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Jimmy Butler stay with the Miami Heat?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+188.5%+$29.39
Will Lebron tweet again in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$14.4
Will Dereck Lively be the top rebounder for the 2024 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Will Kristaps Porzingis be the top rebounder for the 2024 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$34
NBA Finals Game 2: Celtics vs. Mavericks backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$13.61
All 15 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2024, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2024, EDT+222.2%+$57.39
Will Jessica Pegula win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$27.33
US Open: Pegula vs. Muchovabacked Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iga Swiatek win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.53
Zverev vs. Fritz - US Openbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2024, EDT+177.8%+$64
Will Coco Gauff win the US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$11
US Open: Shelton vs. Tiafoebacked Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2024, EDT+150%+$59.99
Will another player win the 2024 ATP Cincinnati Men’s Singles tournament? Market Description:backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$15.99
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 ATP Cincinnati Men’s Singles tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$25.15
Will Jasmine Paolini / Sara Errani (ITA) win Gold in Women’s Doubles Tennis?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$107.79
Will Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) win Gold in Men's Tennis?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2024, EDT+171.9%+$128.3
Will Novak Djokovic (SRB) win Gold in Men's Tennis?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2024, EDT+292.2%+$145.28
Will Djokovic win a gold medal in Paris?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2024, EDT+222.6%+$135.77
Will Casper Ruud win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$22.6
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick29cpaid-84.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.5
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29.58
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+100%+$10
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.61
ChatGPT #1 app May 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.47
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.31
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.67
Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$38.54
GPT-5 released in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$21.5
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+82.6%+$9.05
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$32.6
Will Obama endorse Mamdani?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$33.66
Will Kamala Harris endorse Mamdani?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+203%+$33.5
Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$41.65
Will Cory Booker break the record for the longest filibuster?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will Matt Dolan be appointed as the next Ohio senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Jon Husted be appointed as the next Ohio senator?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$17.51
Trump Cabinet confirmation on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$21.75
Will Republicans have fewer than 200 seats in House after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$17.25
Senate control after 2024 election?backed Democrats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$50.25
All 11 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2025, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-86%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Boxing — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Devin Haney vs. Jose Ramirezbacked Ramirez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Oleksandr Usyk KO Tyson Fury?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$11
Will the fight reach the 9th round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$71.66
Will Any Other Boxer win Gold in Women’s 57kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT+26.4%+$3.23
Will Lin Yu-Ting (TPE) win Gold in Women’s 57kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$56.27
Will Any Other Boxer win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$11
Will Imane Khelif (ALG) win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$100.44
Will Busenaz Surmeneli (TUR) win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$79.13
Olympic Boxing: Imane Khelif (ALG) vs Luca Hamori (HUN)backed Hamori · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$23.88
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2025, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.17ºC in April 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.34°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$13.21
Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$25.3
2024 September hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$15.52
Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$18.2
Will Beryl hit the US as a tropical storm?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$32.32
All 8 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Golf — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2025, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2024, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
WNBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-66.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+132.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Chess — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 20, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 27, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Cricket — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.93
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+150%+$181.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.29
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$32.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.55
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.