Weather · resolved market
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.34°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb6ef8774a2f00981c95a0f7b06c451d06d3e3335c043330758c65616899d383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $421,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $329,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 0c | 35,930$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 35,394$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.26 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 8c | 27,617$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.25 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…dfc1backed Yes | 0c | 24,999$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa54…f2aabacked Yes | 2c | 18,686$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…71d6backed Yes | 1c | 16,674$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…c2f4backed Yes | 3c | 15,196$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,775$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0a…f94ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc6…84bdbacked Yes | 1c | 8,340$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 5,013$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 3c | 4,662$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,572$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…330ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 3,807$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 7c | 3,517$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46c9…7636backed Yes | 2c | 3,253$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…42ffbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 2,938$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.34 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b3…5098backed Yes | 3c | 2,632$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,556$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 2,385$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984e…3ef7backed Yes | 1c | 2,321$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…6b3ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 2,161$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,085$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54f…cd39backed Yes | 1c | 1,876$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 2c | 1,862$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,498$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a95…bf70backed Yes | 2c | 800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 13c | 589.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…eaacbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 8c | 391.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…54e9backed Yes | 17c | 380.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…fe96backed Yes | 15c | 329.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59c…115bbacked Yes | 27c | 94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…3e95backed Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad5…8f07backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.34°C?this page
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?No won
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?Yes won
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?No won
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.