Weather · resolved market
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd971abf6d25fb08d4386846f314b57f33e09f3cf8a1327de3c731f6d29b837cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $458,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $487,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $458,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 902 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 60c | 20,384$12,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,194.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 58c | 17,769$10,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,510.81 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 53c | 10,957$5,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,151 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 17c | 7,652$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,362.33 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…c2f4backed Yes | 57c | 7,642$4,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,254.16 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa54…f2aabacked Yes | 40c | 6,763$2,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,024.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 59c | 6,577$3,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,675.43 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 38c | 5,260$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,267.41 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 48c | 3,838$1,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 46c | 3,645$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,985.88 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 54c | 3,635$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked Yes | 29c | 3,399$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,409.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 45c | 3,127$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.98 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 78c | 3,084$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 62c | 2,694$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 51c | 2,617$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 2,603$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.42 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed No | 44c | 2,206$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.55 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 21c | 1,886$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.98 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25be…5cf9backed No | 6c | 1,734$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 1,584$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.57 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,569$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.81 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 1,356$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0902…7752backed No | 8c | 1,212$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,204$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Yes | 10c | 1,110$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 79c | 917.59$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.48 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba7…d16dbacked Yes | 58c | 800.26$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 78c | 798.39$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.76 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 77c | 719.47$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984e…3ef7backed Yes | 47c | 717.83$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 53c | 687.75$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed Yes | 45c | 639.34$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.07 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 45c | 618.89$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.78 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 38c | 586.33$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.66 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…54e9backed Yes | 32c | 585.71$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.59 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54f…cd39backed Yes | 24c | 583.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833b…ab84backed Yes | 57c | 530$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 33c | 451.3$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.76 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…4efdbacked No | 43c | 420$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…42ffbacked Yes | 12c | 417$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13a…31e8backed No | 44c | 410$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…f86ebacked No | 43c | 410$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6143…5fa4backed No | 43c | 405$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 37c | 399.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…a37ebacked No | 45c | 391$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c8…f005backed Yes | 56c | 390$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…e480backed No | 43c | 390$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…c507backed No | 44c | 390$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa848…c626backed No | 43c | 390$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Yes | 56c | 386.34$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…9ee8backed No | 46c | 380$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 50c | 378.39$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.95 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…a88abacked Yes | 60c | 371.19$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.24 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed No | 9c | 354.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 35c | 342$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5134…16bfbacked Yes | 56c | 320$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a03…d391backed No | 43c | 320$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…9b21backed No | 44c | 320$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ae…6cd6backed No | 44c | 320$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849e…e9b3backed No | 47c | 320$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d4…e53fbacked Yes | 57c | 320$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ca…5fb5backed Yes | 53c | 320$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdc…d4e9backed Yes | 56c | 320$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…33d3backed Yes | 55c | 311$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…8fd5backed No | 43c | 310$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774e…de4bbacked No | 44c | 310$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…cc0abacked Yes | 57c | 310$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…a931backed Yes | 56c | 310$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…3177backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779b…57a9backed Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…a2f7backed Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa296…8a8cbacked Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…8805backed Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…51afbacked Yes | 50c | 300$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977f…a141backed Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fc…5da8backed No | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0440…02e2backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0658…4f9dbacked Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…64b3backed Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…2e86backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a5…38e5backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63d…1e23backed No | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc953…9e7ebacked Yes | 57c | 290$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b6…fb70backed Yes | 57c | 290$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c9…ab30backed Yes | 56c | 290$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 29c | 285.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…18cabacked Yes | 57c | 270$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…ab52backed No | 43c | 270$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…aab4backed Yes | 57c | 270$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…fbf0backed Yes | 50c | 268.8$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefe…a7e9backed No | 68c | 260$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 46c | 255.32$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.96 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef8e…6761backed Yes | 56c | 255$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd03…ec5ebacked No | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…eb33backed Yes | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e50…c012backed Yes | 57c | 240$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a30…3609backed Yes | 57c | 240$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 47c | 231.89$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.03 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…b9c3backed Yes | 48c | 230$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?this page
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?No won
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?No won
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.34°C?No won
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.