Weather · resolved market
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95aa184e6468861d7438bc0a80b43a3db1628ea86baa8dd7c6cdbf5089891912
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $500,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $423,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $500,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 772 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 56c | 38,355$21,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,009.85 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 38c | 36,902$14,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,040.06 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…c2f4backed Yes | 30c | 17,257$5,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,233.59 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa54…f2aabacked Yes | 37c | 10,340$3,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,829.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 14c | 9,163$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.26 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 33c | 9,082$2,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,956.77 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 12c | 8,753$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.84 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 18c | 8,122$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.38 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked No | 43c | 7,032$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,985.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 56c | 6,706$3,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,777.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 6,531$2,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,867.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes | 9c | 6,490$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 26c | 5,405$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.69 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 76c | 5,052$3,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,825.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 35c | 4,554$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.78 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 20c | 3,454$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.36 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 36c | 3,443$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 16c | 3,252$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.6 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 22c | 2,945$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.22 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 18c | 2,913$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 28c | 2,500$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.61 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 22c | 2,432$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.67 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked Yes | 28c | 1,810$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Yes | 5c | 1,665$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc6…84bdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,528$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.77 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 72c | 1,421$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 22c | 1,408$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.08 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed No | 38c | 1,408$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 1,389$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.3 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f5…491fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,291$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 16c | 1,264$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 65c | 1,222$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 13c | 1,220$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed No | 69c | 1,200$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.09 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 51c | 1,050$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 36c | 999$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984e…3ef7backed Yes | 38c | 957.7$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 66c | 955.52$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.01 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…6bf8backed Yes | 8c | 919.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 68c | 910.26$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.44 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 56c | 893.19$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.59 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…6710backed No | 57c | 860$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4208…8897backed No | 57c | 860$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…4af9backed Yes | 43c | 860$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…4e08backed Yes | 43c | 860$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 43c | 857.5$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.73 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 6c | 849.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff4…61ffbacked No | 60c | 830$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1739…ee24backed Yes | 40c | 830$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…8f4cbacked No | 60c | 830$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…e2edbacked Yes | 40c | 830$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 31c | 815.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.28 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba7…d16dbacked Yes | 33c | 800$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…e621backed Yes | 8c | 800$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee63…07a4backed No | 66c | 763.44$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 709.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…a88abacked Yes | 42c | 673.66$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 37c | 660$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 6c | 575$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…4e5ebacked No | 39c | 574.78$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 31c | 563.2$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.94 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes | 9c | 552.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 4c | 526.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…1e18backed Yes | 19c | 525.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed No | 48c | 499.99$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…d65ebacked Yes | 66c | 457.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…678dbacked Yes | 31c | 440$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…42ffbacked Yes | 17c | 419.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…5c56backed Yes | 24c | 410.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 28c | 392.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 40c | 368.72$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.74 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…ddfdbacked Yes | 31c | 350$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f17…e379backed Yes | 41c | 348.18$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed Yes | 19c | 340.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…423ebacked Yes | 30c | 326$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 59c | 317.45$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.71 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d0…2156backed Yes | 6c | 306.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…0e42backed No | 33c | 300$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a8…595abacked Yes | 31c | 300$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…51afbacked Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…55d7backed Yes | 31c | 295$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…54e9backed Yes | 14c | 294.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41c…ac54backed Yes | 34c | 270$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…7767backed No | 69c | 270$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126a…3ef3backed No | 66c | 270$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 27c | 266$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 30c | 264$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…0892backed No | 32c | 260$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0714…b3b7backed Yes | 68c | 260$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…a5a0backed No | 70c | 260$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…ed41backed No | 69c | 260$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 5c | 256.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 44c | 255.37$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…9c10backed Yes | 13c | 250.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d26…7472backed No | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…8248backed Yes | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e92…4dfebacked No | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?this page
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?Yes won
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?No won
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.34°C?No won
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.