TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbd02…60e0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
160
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Middle East, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 62 out of 100; worst AI at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT4845.8%22 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonsecabacked Jakub Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$424Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$168.39
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverevbacked Rafael Jodar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$386.12
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldibacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$136
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Sheltonbacked Ben Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$176.92
BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.27
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruudbacked Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$12.78
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritzbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+114.3%+$106.65
Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonsecabacked Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$445Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+46.1%+$205.21
Swiss Indoors Basel: Joao Fonseca vs Denis Shapovalovbacked Shapovalov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.73
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+105.9%+$360
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+100%+$10
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.6
US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alex de Minaurbacked Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$175
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritzbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$160
US Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Jaume Munarbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$60
US Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iga Swiatekbacked Swiatek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$24
US Open: Felix Auger Aliassime vs Andrey Rublevbacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$494Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$494.04
US Open: Joao Fonseca vs Tomas Machacbacked Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$187.5
US Open: Joao Fonseca vs Miomir Kecmanovicbacked Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$541Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT+48%+$259.5
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 ATP Cincinnati?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$320
ATP Cincinnati - Sinner vs. Atmanebacked Atmane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
ATP Cincinnati - Comesana vs. Rublev backed Comesana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
ATP Cincinnati - Fritz vs. Atmane backed Atmane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$261
ATP Cincinnati - Auger-Aliassime vs. Bonzi backed Bonzi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
ATP Cincinnati - Shelton vs. Bautista Agutbacked Bautista Agut · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT2030%6 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$34.95
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,056Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,056.2
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.51
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.82
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$3,851Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+79.9%+$3,076.6
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$776Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+74.4%+$576.79
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$140
Will Brazilian president Lula announce re-election run by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+292.3%+$237.67
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the July meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$37
Will Mario Grech be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.1
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+220.9%+$702.07
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.25
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.3
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will another person be the next Pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.65
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.6
Bolsonaro arrested before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.5
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$396.36
All 20 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick25cpaid+225.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$349.72
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.32
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.98
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+2,315.1%+$478.91
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+139.2%+$116.4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+40.8%+$46.84
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$14.31
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+200.8%+$123.37
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+372.5%+$446.83
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+438.9%+$366.5
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$60.32
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+262.3%+$362
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+309.8%+$378
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+45.5%+$250
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$740Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32%+$237.02
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$228
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$170.89
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.3
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+84%+$322.02
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$312.84
Will Elon Musk be out as Head of DOGE in Trump's first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$210.1
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,678Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+32.5%+$545.13
Vivek out as Head of DOGE before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$81.51
Will there be a US Government shutdown? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST-100%-$19.75
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1080%8 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+56.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$320
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,841Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$1,128.06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$299.18
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$14.83
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.61
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,982Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$611.72
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+185.7%+$65
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+50.3%+$48.55
Will Gold hit $3,000 before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$899Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+124.5%+$1,119.04
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$99.09
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$112.5
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$60
Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$69.76
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+72.4%+$17.39
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.62
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+35.5%+$131
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-85.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.13
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.59
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$178
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,194Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+33%+$724.76
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.46
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-83.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
OpenAI browser in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$404Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+46.5%+$188.14
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$523
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$156
Will iPhone 17 cost more than $800?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$69
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$63
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
DeepSeek banned in US before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
All 9 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+72.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Golf — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 12, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$271.01
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+28.9%+$44.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$101.56
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$391.04
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+136.7%+$77.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$343
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$278.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$63.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.