Tennis · resolved market

ATP Cincinnati - Auger-Aliassime vs. Bonzi

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b9e726017badc434dcd304501033b8191fbd63b6151ccad73b0a7a717179490

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Aliassimeof Aliassime, Bonzi
Resolved: Aug 13, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $47,950
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,950 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8a05…5c62backed Aliassime	70c	14,276$9,939 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,336.69	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Bonzi	30c	10,888$3,266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,266.4	528	44.7%236 W · 292 L	+30.8wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf557…18debacked Aliassime	70c	7,579$5,273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,305.76	63	76.2%48 W · 15 L	+11.0wins	+0.17per pick	59cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9ccb…0a10backed Bonzi	29c	6,709$1,963 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,962.82	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-3.1wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Aliassime	71c	5,000$3,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,450	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Bonzi	31c	3,914$1,213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,213.37	260	39.2%102 W · 158 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Bonzi	30c	3,578$1,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,073.29	391	44.2%173 W · 218 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Aliassime	75c	2,673$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$672.52	488	51.6%252 W · 236 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Bonzi	25c	2,536$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.04	178	33.1%59 W · 119 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Aliassime	70c	2,100$1,470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$630	761	46.6%355 W · 406 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Aliassime	69c	2,008$1,392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$615.35	159	57.2%91 W · 68 L	+15.8wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Bonzi	29c	1,772$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.89	161	40.4%65 W · 96 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Bonzi	32c	1,500$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	669	49.6%332 W · 337 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Bonzi	6c	1,150$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.98	629	52.1%328 W · 301 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Bonzi	31c	1,000$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	48	60.4%29 W · 19 L	+9.2wins	+0.19per pick	41cpaid	+2,177.1%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0xcdc4…a880backed Bonzi	31c	1,000$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4487…08c6backed Aliassime	71c	974.28$691 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$283.24	127	37.8%48 W · 79 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bonzi	30c	833$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.9	627	42.4%266 W · 361 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Bonzi	32c	800$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed Bonzi	16c	789.47$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.31	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Aliassime	68c	646.36$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.58	321	41.1%132 W · 189 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d0f…933abacked Aliassime	71c	644.85$458 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.01	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	64cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…d3d0backed Bonzi	31c	621.89$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.79	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bonzi	22c	478$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.86	1,852	44.5%825 W · 1,027 L	-20.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Aliassime	68c	421.25$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.8	1,039	54.6%567 W · 472 L	+37.6wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Aliassime	70c	400$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	129	54.3%70 W · 59 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f0b…2305backed Bonzi	32c	357.77$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.49	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-4.2wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bonzi	31c	322.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	480	43.3%208 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Bonzi	32c	315.63$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	731	47.9%350 W · 381 L	-16.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Bonzi	32c	312.5$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	639	42.4%271 W · 368 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Bonzi	30c	300$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	183	38.8%71 W · 112 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd4e…2f7ebacked Aliassime	71c	249.66$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.4	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Aliassime	73c	240$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.76	11,435	43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L	+17.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Bonzi	29c	200$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	119	27.7%33 W · 86 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bonzi	13c	173.23$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.09	2,766	47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L	+44.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Aliassime	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	1,287	60.7%781 W · 506 L	-21.2wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eac…e064backed Aliassime	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bonzi	29c	140.85$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.85	158	32.9%52 W · 106 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Aliassime	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	383	56.9%218 W · 165 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Bonzi	32c	136$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.52	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Bonzi	31c	129.03$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	253	52.2%132 W · 121 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Bonzi	32c	126.01$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2,335	46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L	+55.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Bonzi	31c	120$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.2	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef13…53d2backed Bonzi	31c	112.9$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	250	43.2%108 W · 142 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd02…60e0backed Bonzi	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	+4.3wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5b8…da98backed Aliassime	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	73cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Bonzi	32c	92$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.47	439	48.5%213 W · 226 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3823…2784backed Aliassime	71c	86.77$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.16	321	61.7%198 W · 123 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe259…b890backed Aliassime	78c	80$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Aliassime	78c	67$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.63	755	47.8%361 W · 394 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe64f…5976backed Bonzi	31c	64.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	149	40.9%61 W · 88 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…3ce7backed Bonzi	30c	60.11$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.16	72	36.1%26 W · 46 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fc0…5314backed Bonzi	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Bonzi	31c	33$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	423	59.1%250 W · 173 L	+24.7wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed Aliassime	70c	28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.46	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60d4…f1e4backed Aliassime	72c	27.89$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.89	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1f…e547backed Aliassime	72c	27.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7580…cb71backed Aliassime	70c	26.03$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.81	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

ATP Cincinnati - Auger-Aliassime vs. Bonzi

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market