TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe64f…5976

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
157
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Champions League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 53 out of 100; worst Tennis at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT14940.9%61 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 149 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rolex Paris Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaierbacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+146.6%+$36.65
Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+98.7%+$59.24
Rolex Paris Masters: Gabriel Diallo vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$31.43
Rolex Paris Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonsecabacked Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+103.7%+$41.57
Rolex Paris Masters: Learner Tien vs Andrey Rublevbacked Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.5
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Flavio Cobollibacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
Rolex Paris Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Jiri Leheckabacked Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+200.7%+$30.1
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Zizou Bergsbacked Bergs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+100%+$40
Rolex Paris Masters: Learner Tien vs Nuno Borgesbacked Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$15.32
Swiss Indoors Basel: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Joao Fonsecabacked Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Erste Bank Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Zverevbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Swiss Indoors Basel: Joao Fonseca vs Jaume Munarbacked Munar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Swiss Indoors Basel: Casper Ruud vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokinabacked Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$34.05
Swiss Indoors Basel: Ugo Humbert vs Reilly Opelkabacked Opelka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Swiss Indoors Basel: Joao Fonseca vs Denis Shapovalovbacked Shapovalov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Swiss Indoors Basel: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jaume Munarbacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Erste Bank Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$31.58
Swiss Indoors Basel: Reilly Opelka vs Botic van de Zandschulpbacked Zandschulp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Corentin Moutetbacked Moutet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$36.21
Swiss Indoors Basel: Jaume Munar vs Ben Sheltonbacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Swiss Indoors Basel: Jenson Brooksby vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokinabacked Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+117.9%+$23.59
Swiss Indoors Basel: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Gabriel Diallobacked Diallo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Swiss Indoors Basel: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jiri Leheckabacked Lehecka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 149 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+296.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FIFA Club World Cup: Chelsea vs. PSG – To Lift Trophy backed Chelsea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+296.9%+$295.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$108.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Aug 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Levante UD vs. Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$85
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.