TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Swiss Indoors Basel: Joao Fonseca vs Denis Shapovalov

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fonsecaof Fonseca, Shapovalov
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,793
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$200,592

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,793 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Shapovalov46c15,000$6,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,899.9639249.7%195 W · 197 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Fonseca54c13,378$7,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,153.661,21746.3%563 W · 654 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Fonseca48c12,538$6,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,468.4918933.9%64 W · 125 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Shapovalov45c8,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6002119%4 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.23per pick42cpaid-58.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3e9c…ab80backed Shapovalov33c7,999$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,639.663534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Fonseca25c7,743$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,807.236549.2%32 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Shapovalov48c6,273$2,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,992.3424544.9%110 W · 135 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbced…fcecbacked Shapovalov2c6,220$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Shapovalov54c5,514$2,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,951.892,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Fonseca33c5,437$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,665.265242.8%279 W · 373 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Fonseca56c5,113$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,229.996033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Fonseca56c4,366$2,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,910.664831.3%15 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Shapovalov71c4,000$2,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,84844360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Shapovalov36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08067249.6%333 W · 339 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Fonseca43c2,687$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.957152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Shapovalov57c2,428$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.6415832.3%51 W · 107 L-13.6wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4403…4252backed Fonseca37c2,289$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.691241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a11…abe7backed Shapovalov44c2,248$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Fonseca57c2,221$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.138,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d4…dbd6backed Shapovalov73c2,120$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.6133256%186 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Shapovalov47c2,113$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.159944.4%44 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Fonseca55c1,816$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.9938348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Fonseca53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.891,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Shapovalov50c1,406$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69611,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Shapovalov64c1,357$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.086,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Fonseca52c1,222$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.4315048%72 W · 78 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd34…140dbacked Shapovalov15c1,107$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.141233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c5…f211backed Fonseca32c1,077$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.352339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Shapovalov46c1,053$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.542,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Shapovalov10c1,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9528833.3%96 W · 192 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ada…43b0backed Shapovalov71c957.69$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.6923852.1%124 W · 114 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Shapovalov36c822.58$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde44…cb51backed Fonseca43c799.85$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.8513435.1%47 W · 87 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Shapovalov21c755.01$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15919131.4%60 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked Fonseca60c668.27$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.279961.6%61 W · 38 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Shapovalov47c620.21$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29070465.2%459 W · 245 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Shapovalov48c600$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.725244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8de5…e957backed Shapovalov45c595.67$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.459452.1%49 W · 45 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Fonseca51c562.14$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.4540141.9%168 W · 233 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb75d…9d01backed Shapovalov80c515.36$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.0812154.5%66 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Shapovalov45c509.81$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.141631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Fonseca51c502.75$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.281,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Shapovalov43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21511859.3%70 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa333…292bbacked Fonseca54c461.11$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.111250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+37.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…5696backed Fonseca55c456.2$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.93580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+71%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20c1…df04backed Shapovalov60c416.67$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018439.1%72 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Shapovalov77c387.61$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Shapovalov63c368.93$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.84025%10 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Shapovalov46c358.7$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16522744.5%101 W · 126 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72e0…9fc1backed Fonseca54c355.56$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.563046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed46…1badbacked Shapovalov57c351.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003948.7%19 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06da…3181backed Shapovalov55c323.89$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.148562.4%53 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf72c…f818backed Fonseca33c303.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.032030%6 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1932…4e5abacked Shapovalov72c300$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2161275%9 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+39.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x69e9…dee1backed Fonseca28c300$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+84%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x48e2…35c7backed Shapovalov67c298.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001560%9 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Shapovalov39c278.52$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10849749.9%248 W · 249 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Shapovalov71c270.67$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5986470%605 W · 259 L+43.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Fonseca39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4143158.2%251 W · 180 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Shapovalov46c247.47$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Shapovalov45c243.62$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6962742.4%266 W · 361 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42ed…d13dbacked Shapovalov49c225.03$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Fonseca40c222.64$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.5175547.8%361 W · 394 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb6…15cdbacked Shapovalov70c221.17$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.823452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Shapovalov47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018543.2%80 W · 105 L-13.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Shapovalov48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10073147.9%350 W · 381 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Shapovalov42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd180…4276backed Shapovalov15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ea…d9d0backed Shapovalov47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5916…8d4fbacked Fonseca52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965862.1%36 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Shapovalov31c193.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6038951.9%202 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Shapovalov72c193.06$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13951849.4%256 W · 262 L-1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Shapovalov36c190.23$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696331.7%20 W · 43 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7180…bdbabacked Fonseca54c185.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.746145.9%28 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Fonseca54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.191,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9494…308abacked Fonseca54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.194839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Shapovalov41c175.35$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.071,25850%629 W · 629 L-4.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Fonseca54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.422840.4%92 W · 136 L-0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Shapovalov48c146.93$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7011533.9%39 W · 76 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ec…a7b9backed Shapovalov17c136.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310822.2%24 W · 84 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed Shapovalov75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012560%75 W · 50 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Shapovalov47c127.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6046556.1%261 W · 204 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f8e…0a87backed Shapovalov75c124.39$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.291361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Shapovalov44c117.86$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8673048.8%356 W · 374 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f01…4ca2backed Shapovalov34c117.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9610956.9%62 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…d09bbacked Shapovalov34c111.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.89130%0 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1b9b…5f3ebacked Shapovalov75c107.6$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.71060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaed…8479backed Fonseca56c107.47$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.485255.8%29 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb1e…230abacked Shapovalov12c105$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1331819.2%61 W · 257 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd02…60e0backed Shapovalov70c103.9$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.734845.8%22 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12e3…c370backed Shapovalov70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x006d…83d4backed Shapovalov47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Fonseca53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4728747.7%137 W · 150 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Fonseca55c98.89$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9336047.2%170 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61a7…dd91backed Fonseca56c98.21$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Shapovalov38c92.35$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352,33946.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L+55.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x875c…d3e8backed Fonseca56c89.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.410250%51 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf83…915dbacked Shapovalov49c87.76$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4364637.2%240 W · 406 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd766…acfcbacked Shapovalov15c81.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed Fonseca54c80$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.82661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+24.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.