World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27a90add1eb81a3a2c00062c2b6fa3d6284685459cf5e8afe3e987e4aab2f6ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $331,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $307,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $331,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0886…6072backed Yes | 10c | 96,763$9,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,255.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…10bcbacked Yes | 8c | 23,502$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 10,383$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.34 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,334$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 5c | 6,236$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.35 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 6,043$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.69 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 5,903$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.26 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764d…15aebacked Yes | 18c | 5,615$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 28cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 5,548$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,010$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…285fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,883$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e82…f3b0backed Yes | 6c | 3,273$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe76…da4ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,242$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 2,749$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.84 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,476$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.76 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 2c | 1,697$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…4c8bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,456$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,349$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,346$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…9c50backed Yes | 3c | 1,164$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c0…9ef2backed Yes | 11c | 1,132$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…82ddbacked Yes | 6c | 1,001$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc69…7857backed Yes | 11c | 948.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd8…9806backed Yes | 2c | 897.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…f892backed Yes | 12c | 894.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…117abacked Yes | 7c | 891.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x693e…c4b0backed Yes | 6c | 860.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f49…6fe4backed Yes | 9c | 755.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…3abfbacked Yes | 4c | 746.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…30aabacked Yes | 6c | 741.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 7c | 718.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa7…5526backed Yes | 3c | 692.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ac…3c6ebacked Yes | 5c | 681.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 661.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2736backed Yes | 9c | 625.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 4c | 595.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 12c | 587.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad2…9fc8backed Yes | 3c | 551$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7c…f70ebacked Yes | 4c | 529.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3984…4177backed Yes | 6c | 503.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 4c | 496.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 461$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…c415backed Yes | 9c | 426.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a45…b82abacked Yes | 4c | 413.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb469…f077backed Yes | 12c | 402.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…6f7fbacked Yes | 9c | 400.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 5c | 392.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…e58fbacked Yes | 3c | 383.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 4c | 364.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…1a63backed Yes | 10c | 329$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Yes | 7c | 290.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 5c | 259$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9683backed Yes | 4c | 255.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…8d6bbacked Yes | 8c | 248.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcff…7f1fbacked Yes | 12c | 224.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…4c94backed Yes | 7c | 210.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…dfbabacked Yes | 11c | 209$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x808e…1c51backed Yes | 10c | 194.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264a…3272backed Yes | 10c | 178$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…97ffbacked Yes | 11c | 176$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…950dbacked Yes | 15c | 166.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 15c | 166.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…0054backed Yes | 9c | 162.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc04…196dbacked Yes | 12c | 162.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103a…1029backed Yes | 10c | 151.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b06…f523backed Yes | 14c | 131$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…fa28backed Yes | 11c | 127$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9170…569bbacked Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…13d4backed Yes | 19c | 76.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde3e…f99bbacked Yes | 20c | 75.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…7210backed Yes | 14c | 71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu?this page
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Attila Cseke?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Candidate Lucian Croitoru?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Claudiu Târziu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Crin Antonescu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Drulă?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Predoiu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Delia Velculescu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Elena Lasconi?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Emil Boc?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Florin Cîțu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Gabriela Firea?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be George Simion?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?Yes won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ionuț Dumitru?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Kelemen Hunor?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ludovic Orban?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Marcel Ciolacu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Raluca Turcan?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sebastian Burduja?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Vasile Dîncu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Victor Ponta?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.