Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x737b87d386e6241c7e4cdd916196ed95e41f96de3e6739238fd56a3eeadacd83

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 24, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $147,811
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,098

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,811 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes	0c	25,818$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.13	412	1%4 W · 408 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+171.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes	0c	18,568$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.25	452	1.1%5 W · 447 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+156.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa59b…01f4backed Yes	0c	12,156$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	513	2.9%15 W · 498 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9d1…8c4dbacked Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd8…9806backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ff…0d37backed Yes	17c	4,760$786 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$786.01	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes	1c	3,703$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.41	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7789…10c8backed Yes	3c	3,455$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.04	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	11cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	1c	3,359$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	293	9.2%27 W · 266 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…9a7dbacked Yes	17c	2,973$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+151.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab6…cfecbacked Yes	2c	2,705$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c7…e05abacked Yes	22c	2,278$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9419…4201backed Yes	1c	2,053$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	61	18%11 W · 50 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes	3c	1,942$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.33	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x561b…0a5fbacked Yes	1c	1,900$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+2.5wins	+0.15per pick	14cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x081c…c4e4backed Yes	30c	1,330$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes	2c	1,297$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.76	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes	9c	1,135$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.74	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-60%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0a3…82ddbacked Yes	1c	1,112$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-73.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c6…4162backed Yes	16c	1,095$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.03	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71d1…2969backed Yes	9c	973.9$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.65	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No	77c	843.99$647 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.65	232	25%58 W · 174 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes	1c	843$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d1…33b8backed Yes	25c	793.43$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	35cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b9b…0054backed Yes	2c	712.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No	79c	672$529 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.62	103	31.1%32 W · 71 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x693e…c4b0backed Yes	3c	650.61$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.55	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Yes	32c	620.15$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf584…e58fbacked Yes	23c	603.8$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ba…2589backed Yes	16c	602.48$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a7…8d16backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x308a…95ffbacked Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b71…08fbbacked Yes	4c	472.22$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-30%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	17c	457.73$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.97	166	12.7%21 W · 145 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6843…e313backed Yes	6c	349.28$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaf7…29fdbacked No	75c	330$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.5	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+232.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes	4c	320$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	125	6.4%8 W · 117 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99b0…24c0backed Yes	20c	290$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.48	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	19cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9835…e569backed Yes	23c	240.23$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.41	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	15c	236.9$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.39	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4eee…5841backed Yes	16c	200$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1952…e130backed Yes	15c	199.75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.35	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	27cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11f2…2c1ebacked Yes	18c	166.78$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…9784backed Yes	22c	162.42$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.73	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03cc…78fcbacked Yes	17c	140$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.22	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes	13c	128.14$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.48	203	28.6%58 W · 145 L	-11.4wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd559…994fbacked Yes	17c	119.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb289…a997backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c19…17febacked Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+67.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3de7…bbb8backed Yes	22c	98.13$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.47	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-2.9wins	-0.12per pick	16cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0a2…5adabacked Yes	22c	92.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	80.81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	563	14.6%82 W · 481 L	-39.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x53f9…e920backed Yes	22c	75.11$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbc9…9d68backed Yes	30c	67.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+50.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0294…e4dbbacked Yes	33c	61.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cd9…c14ebacked Yes	23c	55.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.63	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa9…f945backed No	79c	55.56$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.93	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7740…11ebbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3b…025bbacked Yes	23c	46$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1490…8c0bbacked Yes	26c	42.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+43.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3612…bd3ebacked No	77c	40$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.08	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5485…ea39backed No	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.96	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event