TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sebastian Burduja?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$135,213
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,213 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5137…1556backed Yes0c25,306$50 inLost-$501643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c21,870$26 inLost-$25.774521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c20,704$39 inLost-$38.94121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc4…a928backed Yes0c9,113$10 inLost-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-76.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes1c5,620$46 inLost-$45.736119.7%12 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes0c2,853$12 inLost-$11.8134726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1691…f06dbacked Yes1c2,232$20 inLost-$203020%6 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes1c2,220$19 inLost-$18.86114.8%9 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3b…025bbacked Yes1c1,887$15 inLost-$15.011717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,814$16 inLost-$15.51,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c1,465$15 inLost-$14.732939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0a3…82ddbacked Yes1c1,250$10 inLost-$10219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-73.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x693e…c4b0backed Yes3c1,190$39 inLost-$391717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick10cpaid-30%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6674…a4e4backed Yes2c982.69$20 inLost-$20.1922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+86.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x954a…87d5backed Yes2c542.62$11 inLost-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c483.63$14 inLost-$13.836883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes5c387.4$20 inLost-$205628.6%16 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc69…7857backed Yes3c361.94$10 inLost-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x261b…b7efbacked Yes3c352.18$11 inLost-$111723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb854…ba55backed Yes5c320.21$15 inLost-$15520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.