Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ionuț Dumitru?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bb05a01158c0bd41e7d7d73e8792aaa67f72b700600938735b29549c364ef3a

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 24, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $83,711
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,620

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,711 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes	0c	14,017$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.02	412	1%4 W · 408 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+171.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	1c	4,822$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.71	293	9.2%27 W · 266 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes	1c	3,509$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.21	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7d…7e36backed Yes	11c	3,040$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.61	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	46cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes	1c	2,839$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.94	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ff…0d37backed Yes	7c	2,815$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa925…4a4abacked Yes	1c	2,731$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	10	20%2 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a45…b82abacked Yes	4c	2,581$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.2	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9419…4201backed Yes	1c	2,431$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	61	18%11 W · 50 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+65.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5940…96edbacked Yes	1c	2,059$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	20cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x561b…0a5fbacked Yes	1c	1,700$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.3	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+2.5wins	+0.15per pick	14cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes	5c	1,634$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.64	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-60%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,334$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.48	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes	2c	1,187$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.59	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0a3…82ddbacked Yes	5c	1,110$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-73.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c3…2783backed Yes	3c	1,018$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a6…058fbacked Yes	4c	984.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+19%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7199…8494backed Yes	5c	928.23$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f30…acaebacked Yes	7c	883.42$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+50.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	3c	780.48$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.58	166	12.7%21 W · 145 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfbe…e790backed Yes	19c	525.3$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19c0…35f8backed Yes	8c	521.08$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.5	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c8f…4843backed Yes	18c	490.27$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.23	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	6c	352.76$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.71	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7daf…61fbbacked Yes	15c	342.45$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.33	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.15per pick	40cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c34…8fe0backed Yes	9c	222$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.64	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53f9…e920backed Yes	16c	121.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe3b…025bbacked Yes	18c	101.17$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…8d6bbacked Yes	20c	101.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9835…e569backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ionuț Dumitru?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event