World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95eb6fd2c9e256215506b539cb75c3a29f340c857a8ea31a5c2c0ba5574bcec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 28,331$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…2783backed Yes | 0c | 10,017$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,801$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 3,677$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c35…c5b3backed Yes | 1c | 3,279$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a45…b82abacked Yes | 3c | 3,237$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe76…da4ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,927$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 0c | 2,536$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 1c | 2,148$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…0d37backed Yes | 3c | 2,077$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd77…ed22backed Yes | 4c | 2,002$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 4c | 1,862$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,549$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6843…e313backed Yes | 1c | 1,503$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…82ddbacked Yes | 3c | 1,378$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1691…f06dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,135$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…2c2fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,043$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…4f1ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,008$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 851.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ac…3c6ebacked Yes | 3c | 753.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70bd…1915backed Yes | 3c | 694.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6f…d7d9backed Yes | 16c | 580.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9330…2188backed Yes | 2c | 526.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2736backed Yes | 3c | 513.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 447.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcff…7f1fbacked Yes | 9c | 436.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…4c8bbacked Yes | 3c | 420.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș?this page
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Attila Cseke?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Candidate Lucian Croitoru?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Claudiu Târziu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Crin Antonescu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Drulă?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Predoiu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Delia Velculescu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Elena Lasconi?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Emil Boc?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Florin Cîțu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Gabriela Firea?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be George Simion?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?Yes won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ionuț Dumitru?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Kelemen Hunor?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ludovic Orban?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Marcel Ciolacu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Raluca Turcan?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sebastian Burduja?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Vasile Dîncu?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Victor Ponta?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.