TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf7c1…1efe

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
89
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst Champions League at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST2817.9%5 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick10cpaid-29.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$132.39
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+265.3%+$291.85
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$79.33
Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Bello Bouba Maïgari win the Cameroon Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.54
Will Cabral Libii win the Cameroon Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.04
Will Issa Tchiroma Bakary win the Cameroon Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.03
Will Akere Muna win the Cameroon Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.1
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Will Alessandro Tomasi win Tuscany Regional Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.4
Will Pasquale Tridico win Calabria Regional Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Francesco Toscano win Calabria Regional Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.71
Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$144.15
Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.77
Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.89
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of USR?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.51
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.13
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be from another party?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.05
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$676Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+111.2%+$751.53
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Dacian Cioloș?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$71
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.42
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-72.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$46.85
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$60.5
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.4
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.74
Will Meta have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.6
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.5
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.32
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.39
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.46
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+363.4%+$178.01
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.22
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.04
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$133.3
Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.75
All 17 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2025, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 12, 2025, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2025, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 20, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Innsbruck host Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.94
Will Graz host Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.