World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36419ee93bea552fff521bc268bfd8d8105bc1ff1055b940cc45d697e99d97c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 31,134$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 0c | 14,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,373$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d73…f538backed Yes | 1c | 8,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…3fdcbacked Yes | 1c | 7,727$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 0c | 4,210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 0c | 3,368$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…2783backed Yes | 2c | 3,001$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,765$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a65…5b95backed Yes | 0c | 2,119$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…4461backed Yes | 1c | 1,731$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,563$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…117abacked Yes | 2c | 1,516$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b9…95fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,168$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 2c | 709$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR?this page
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of AUR?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?Yes won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of POT?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of SOS?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of USR?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent?No won
- Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be from another party?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.