TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$306,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$178,525

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,697 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c15,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes12c14,414$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.548224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e78…ea77backed Yes6c12,649$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.014839.6%19 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfeb5…1dc6backed Yes14c11,919$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.671833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f29…2028backed Yes5c11,771$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+58%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b9…95fabacked Yes18c10,567$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.071040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bce…3fdcbacked Yes14c10,158$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.11421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes7c8,276$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.636119.7%12 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes4c6,761$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.545628.6%16 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c6,128$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.34521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38cf…1d60backed Yes2c5,911$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-86.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes10c5,697$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.073411.8%4 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5270…4c8bbacked Yes3c5,360$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.741526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick15cpaid-2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c5,021$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.116883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes29c4,658$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.515341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63c3…2783backed Yes4c4,578$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.722817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick11cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes2c4,255$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.892817.9%5 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick10cpaid-29.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes6c3,798$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.586114.8%9 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes34c3,585$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.442722.2%6 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick12cpaid-15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b4c…a61fbacked Yes1c3,562$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.11742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10f2…f658backed Yes9c3,383$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdef…82acbacked Yes5c3,202$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.141020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1691…f06dbacked Yes1c3,177$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.613020%6 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9419…4201backed Yes2c2,666$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.276118%11 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+65.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b9b…0054backed Yes3c2,449$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70130%0 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes1c2,340$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.35626.8%15 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa486…25d4backed Yes11c2,189$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.662326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c2,107$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.522939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5fb…6eb5backed Yes33c2,044$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.042321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6765…e43cbacked Yes3c1,980$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes6c1,770$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4813413.4%18 W · 116 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9065…9511backed Yes6c1,730$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8850%4 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+20.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes6c1,670$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.218214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked Yes14c1,615$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.38837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x267c…9b16backed Yes5c1,455$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.641915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-43.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31ff…0d37backed Yes24c1,302$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.094420.5%9 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8af5…36afbacked Yes7c1,272$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.351618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-71.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes18c1,266$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.673928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x367c…a358backed Yes8c1,236$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.37540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0344…38f1backed Yes7c1,148$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0a3…82ddbacked Yes5c1,104$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-73.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a65…5b95backed Yes9c1,093$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e63…488dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b0…8512backed Yes3c960$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.61540%6 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c949.57$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.481,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe326…5158backed Yes1c908.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.811040%4 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick25cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c884.79$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9256314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes13c884.08$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.084766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03cc…78fcbacked Yes12c882.84$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.491435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c779.96$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.431,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2466…e4afbacked Yes31c743.82$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b41…38efbacked Yes8c612.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.97812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-59.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94f8…30aabacked Yes10c591.82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7d…4b0abacked Yes31c538.43$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.45714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes6c534.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011017.3%19 W · 91 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2510…5263backed Yes13c522$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9dc1backed Yes12c510$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-67.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d00…b832backed Yes10c509.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-60.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x366c…6578backed Yes4c500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddbb…4461backed Yes5c496.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8914…dd24backed Yes9c479.03$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb09…ceffbacked Yes23c468.83$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c34…8fe0backed Yes7c464.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.642020%4 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe43d…bc5bbacked Yes6c446.37$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.81020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes21c435$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.610331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes13c418.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.734134.1%14 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf383…8b45backed Yes7c418.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf639…5838backed Yes4c399.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64822.9%11 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bec…56d0backed Yes30c338.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-46.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe3b…025bbacked Yes21c336.81$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.071717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7789…10c8backed Yes15c335.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.33283.6%1 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-83.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ab6…cfecbacked Yes6c318.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-72.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb7…c940backed Yes6c316.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+30.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x003a…950ebacked Yes10c308.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48a4…f779backed Yes16c291.93$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-42.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45a1…d54abacked Yes35c290$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.62850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bc4…2d40backed Yes52c289.37$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.631060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7976…ce10backed Yes36c280.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+71.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9835…e569backed Yes22c277.68$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-70.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4a…a72ebacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.972030%6 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes12c238.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2420328.6%58 W · 145 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e32…2ec3backed Yes4c236.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…688dbacked Yes4c235.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9168…445cbacked Yes29c223.89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdf…c70ebacked Yes7c218.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.99933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+109.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb289…a997backed Yes12c218.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7890%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a83…38e9backed Yes6c205.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178231.7%26 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No70c199.67$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.96225.8%16 W · 46 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x380b…81b5backed Yes23c157.62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.98633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes12c155.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2517227.9%48 W · 124 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes31c154.52$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2217524.6%43 W · 132 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x68c3…73a9backed Yes59c137.82$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.46837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088c…3f3ebacked Yes33c116.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.931450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4887…1eb4backed Yes19c105.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e8e…a0bdbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41030%3 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+91.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb4a…e933backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x362b…108dbacked Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cd8…9806backed Yes10c99.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102025%5 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8306…8fe3backed Yes18c95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.