TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6779…0400

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
151
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 57 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT947.4%7 W · 87 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 94 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.65
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$440
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$600
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,205Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,205.17
Will Elon tweet between 1000 and 1049 times September 1–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.18
Will Elon tweet between 800 and 849 times September 1–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.64
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.19
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.73
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$703Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$702.97
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$930Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$930
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$269.95
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$252.19
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$4,337Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,336.75
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,180Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+30.8%+$1,289.4
Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will Elon tweet between 460 and 479 times September 5–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$850Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$850
Will Elon tweet between 540 and 559 times September 5–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet between 260 and 279 times September 5–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 94 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST2722.2%6 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick12cpaid-15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claudiu Târziu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Călin Georgescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$13.85
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$25.17
Will Victor Ponta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$13.89
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$377.25
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$21.45
Will Cătălin Cîrstoiu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will George Tuță be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$22.34
Will Crin Antonescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+397.1%+$794.19
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$935Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+435.5%+$4,073.72
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,210.44
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Kelemen Hunor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 14-17%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$467Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+157.6%+$735.62
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,317Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+382.4%+$5,036.73
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+498%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+361%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+361%+$1,056.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,399Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,399.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.