TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,273,570
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,293,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,273,570 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 479 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06ec…f845backed Yes8c60,826$4,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,817.1521935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0556…74f3backed Yes10c36,369$3,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes11c31,526$3,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,347.5980%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes12c22,942$2,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741.829549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc35b…7389backed Yes9c21,697$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf7e…d472backed Yes28c20,250$5,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,621.371172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd150…55a6backed Yes6c16,810$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x310e…5050backed Yes24c15,695$3,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,696.14922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes14c15,676$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,180.287638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1639…b984backed No77c13,276$10,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,110.432161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed4f…e25abacked Yes11c12,446$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.41185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes17c12,404$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.298134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes27c11,967$3,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,264.584542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e12…451ebacked Yes8c11,937$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes20c11,476$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.0512630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes13c10,934$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.358020%16 W · 64 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x445b…7ca4backed Yes17c10,590$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5acf…51f2backed Yes12c10,482$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.5750%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yes21c10,001$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.391618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-49.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes22c10,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2007354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes11c9,988$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.138750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes19c8,946$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.482429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed Yes10c8,106$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.58922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick12cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c7,685$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.1644111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x346d…828fbacked Yes0c7,540$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed Yes3c7,452$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.652045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbac…83aebacked Yes11c6,072$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Yes10c5,951$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.37147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes11c5,939$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.6228320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes12c5,006$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.7310056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d46…6233backed Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.45per pick35cpaid+191.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes16c4,804$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75716544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No77c4,780$3,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.577128.2%20 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes1c4,729$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2618516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes1c4,597$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.326530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd61f…10bfbacked No77c4,471$3,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No74c4,265$3,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.414259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes16c4,048$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.197728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1016…64c1backed Yes10c4,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c3,800$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6312910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4a…fff2backed Yes4c3,724$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-82.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x481a…d1e6backed Yes15c3,680$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No76c3,600$2,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84720446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3418…a3f2backed Yes14c3,500$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.59850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+76.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes22c3,274$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.523432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes13c3,043$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.287338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes3c3,000$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+52.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8ae…47e9backed No80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…525abacked Yes19c2,998$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes21c2,983$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.454427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes20c2,972$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.57244.4%32 W · 40 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No80c2,833$2,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.132740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+96.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6afe…6fd4backed Yes9c2,797$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c2,780$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.0555618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes15c2,691$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.919426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes9c2,679$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.898444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes13c2,596$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.5732029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes13c2,568$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.3910127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes10c2,515$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.77616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-74.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes19c2,511$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.652630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes14c2,500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes25c2,500$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6253923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No80c2,486$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.7875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b45…39b8backed Yes5c2,484$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed Yes26c2,418$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6405451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8e9…7717backed Yes29c2,397$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa810…fd25backed Yes31c2,270$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.741915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes10c2,263$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.391618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes14c2,246$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.9937740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes14c2,222$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.974731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7a…5015backed Yes35c2,177$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.95119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid+130.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes26c2,150$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.3710055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4db9…8ebebacked Yes16c2,144$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x288a…4275backed Yes9c2,001$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b3c…0686backed Yes9c2,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes19c2,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37070%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.997739%30 W · 47 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x477d…e691backed Yes14c1,790$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.9933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes14c1,788$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.9737844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7703…34b9backed Yes14c1,710$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed Yes27c1,651$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.095735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77be…951abacked Yes10c1,644$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes19c1,632$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.8923149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed No80c1,625$1,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-79.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764d…15aebacked Yes5c1,625$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes8c1,579$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed Yes13c1,569$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.452020%4 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f95…9bd4backed Yes11c1,518$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e4…be2abacked Yes13c1,513$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e82…f3b0backed Yes20c1,513$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7670…5204backed Yes8c1,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes6c1,500$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb6…099fbacked Yes28c1,498$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.3530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0bb…ea96backed Yes21c1,465$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb414…da07backed Yes4c1,437$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f0…bdd3backed Yes14c1,368$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.69100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f29…72e6backed Yes18c1,338$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No53c1,329$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.013966.7%26 W · 13 L+10.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+133.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x5d65…e42abacked Yes36c1,303$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9dc1backed No80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.