Us Politics · resolved market
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3ede0572bba2901df68aac861e1be5a2de742060237d8cf85085e596d210eff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,273,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,293,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,273,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 479 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 8c | 60,826$4,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,817.15 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…74f3backed Yes | 10c | 36,369$3,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,504 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 11c | 31,526$3,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,347.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 12c | 22,942$2,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,741.82 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc35b…7389backed Yes | 9c | 21,697$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…d472backed Yes | 28c | 20,250$5,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,621.37 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd150…55a6backed Yes | 6c | 16,810$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…5050backed Yes | 24c | 15,695$3,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,696.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 14c | 15,676$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.28 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…b984backed No | 77c | 13,276$10,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,110.43 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 11c | 12,446$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.41 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 17c | 12,404$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.29 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 27c | 11,967$3,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,264.58 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…451ebacked Yes | 8c | 11,937$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 20c | 11,476$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,333.05 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 13c | 10,934$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.35 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445b…7ca4backed Yes | 17c | 10,590$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…51f2backed Yes | 12c | 10,482$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 21c | 10,001$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.39 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 22c | 10,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 11c | 9,988$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.13 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 19c | 8,946$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.48 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 10c | 8,106$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 7,685$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.16 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x346d…828fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,540$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 3c | 7,452$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.65 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…83aebacked Yes | 11c | 6,072$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 10c | 5,951$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.37 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 11c | 5,939$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.62 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 12c | 5,006$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.73 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d46…6233backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 16c | 4,804$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 77c | 4,780$3,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.57 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 4,729$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 1c | 4,597$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…10bfbacked No | 77c | 4,471$3,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 74c | 4,265$3,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.41 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 16c | 4,048$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.19 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…64c1backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 3,800$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4a…fff2backed Yes | 4c | 3,724$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…d1e6backed Yes | 15c | 3,680$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 76c | 3,600$2,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 14c | 3,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 22c | 3,274$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.52 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 13c | 3,043$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.28 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…47e9backed No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…525abacked Yes | 19c | 2,998$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 21c | 2,983$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.45 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,972$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.5 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 80c | 2,833$2,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.13 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6afe…6fd4backed Yes | 9c | 2,797$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 2,780$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.05 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 15c | 2,691$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.91 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 9c | 2,679$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.89 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 13c | 2,596$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.57 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 13c | 2,568$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.39 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,515$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 19c | 2,511$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.65 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 25c | 2,500$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 80c | 2,486$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…39b8backed Yes | 5c | 2,484$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 26c | 2,418$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e9…7717backed Yes | 29c | 2,397$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 31c | 2,270$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.74 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 10c | 2,263$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.39 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 14c | 2,246$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.99 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 14c | 2,222$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…5015backed Yes | 35c | 2,177$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 26c | 2,150$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.37 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8ebebacked Yes | 16c | 2,144$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed Yes | 9c | 2,001$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3c…0686backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 14c | 1,790$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 14c | 1,788$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.97 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Yes | 14c | 1,710$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 27c | 1,651$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.09 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77be…951abacked Yes | 10c | 1,644$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 19c | 1,632$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.89 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed No | 80c | 1,625$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764d…15aebacked Yes | 5c | 1,625$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes | 8c | 1,579$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed Yes | 13c | 1,569$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…9bd4backed Yes | 11c | 1,518$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e4…be2abacked Yes | 13c | 1,513$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e82…f3b0backed Yes | 20c | 1,513$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7670…5204backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…099fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,498$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bb…ea96backed Yes | 21c | 1,465$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…da07backed Yes | 4c | 1,437$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f0…bdd3backed Yes | 14c | 1,368$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.69 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…72e6backed Yes | 18c | 1,338$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 53c | 1,329$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.01 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…e42abacked Yes | 36c | 1,303$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…9dc1backed No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.