TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$303,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,360

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,646 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes4c35,836$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.58636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes4c14,000$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.8910433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes5c10,843$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.174731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c10,689$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.915614.3%8 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16be…23d9backed Yes5c10,000$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4731533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2684…d3d6backed Yes11c7,924$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.992630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes5c6,000$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.283426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes4c4,355$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked Yes4c4,298$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.01728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+72.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e6…1fb3backed Yes2c4,055$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes4c3,772$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.222524%6 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes4c3,710$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.715032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes5c3,461$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.971118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+85.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,084$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5329913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ea…d556backed Yes3c2,955$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.671936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb525…705bbacked Yes4c2,587$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.542540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes7c2,500$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.211717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ab…070ebacked Yes4c2,280$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.051435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b4…e4a0backed Yes5c2,198$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13c2…0403backed Yes13c2,102$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes2c2,027$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.553228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+159%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes1c1,937$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7629…cddabacked Yes5c1,900$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.33825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-56.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes3c1,817$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.632611.5%3 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-80.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09a5…b5c3backed Yes4c1,747$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.55742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f9…2bf0backed Yes2c1,595$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes14c1,500$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.922748.1%13 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.19per pick29cpaid+28.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8d8f…4b8abacked Yes4c1,417$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes8c1,318$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes2c1,311$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.466126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes6c1,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes2c999.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21150%0 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0ba…99f0backed Yes5c940.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes18c921.08$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.37650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c885.62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0917528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes4c857.52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2611334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff48…789ebacked Yes4c792.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e12…ef6ebacked Yes7c754.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes22c730$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.61338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d57…c9eabacked Yes3c717.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes2c650.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-52.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x65ce…67f4backed Yes3c646.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…8cebbacked Yes3c569$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x301e…74e4backed Yes2c563$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc62f…f330backed Yes4c549.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c6…03cdbacked Yes4c499.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d1…87a7backed Yes4c489.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2758…b8aebacked Yes2c482$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba66…2c2dbacked Yes4c471$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf231…0fe6backed Yes3c470$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17dd…18d5backed Yes4c458$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd706…fac2backed Yes4c457.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x746e…4238backed Yes4c444.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0530…38d0backed Yes4c442$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes24c426$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.51637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c407.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.422711.1%3 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa472…45aebacked Yes23c400$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+66.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcca2…0525backed Yes4c399$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0673…2e81backed Yes5c396.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…d03dbacked Yes4c389$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes18c320$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.81323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-63.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes6c311.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.22524%6 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes4c294.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe57f…f13dbacked Yes4c283.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe06a…fcb0backed Yes4c279$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69d9…7c64backed Yes5c265.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c260$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.414024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9359…b49fbacked Yes18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes5c205$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.061030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes5c200.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…06c5backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+71.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes6c198.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes25c170$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe006…7ee1backed Yes24c166.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ab…9c67backed Yes23c130.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5232backed No78c128$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.161346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe180…889bbacked Yes18c121.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes23c120$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.63151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24f…c30abacked Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+84.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x174c…012dbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2340%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a5…c139backed Yes22c83.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes20c79.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.952532%8 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02b6…5513backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9948…bd21backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed No78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.