TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe006…7ee1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Commodities, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 53 out of 100; worst Macro Indicators at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+110.5%+$66.33
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.23
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+30.3%+$34.81
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.64
Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$123.82
Supreme Court unblocks Alien Enemies Act?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$16.34
Will courts block Trump's tariffs before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT+206.3%+$87.26
Will Trump cut military spending?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+36.8%+$54.06
Trump trade deal in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.59
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$83.05
Will China counter tariff the U.S. in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$467.9
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+29.9%+$3.07
Will Trump cut aid to Jordan or Egypt before March? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+35.1%+$5.27
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 19 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+46.3%+$19
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+400%+$40
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.21
All 8 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Fed end QT before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveirabacked Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Pereira vs. Ankalaevbacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$12.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+58.7%+$23.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+47.3%+$4.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$12.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.