Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf9d0e448129a9f657f851d49495ba4742055d80e0ef1166ba0ee81d4d594214
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,312,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,076,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,312,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,011 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd228…997bbacked Yes | 18c | 70,611$12,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,921.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +667.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…2898backed Yes | 26c | 52,611$13,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,573.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…6c1bbacked No | 74c | 52,611$39,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,573.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20db…63ccbacked No | 79c | 48,135$37,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,204.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2c…ec5abacked Yes | 21c | 48,107$10,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,198.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…9a46backed Yes | 21c | 44,326$9,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,441.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…e76ebacked No | 79c | 44,326$34,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,441.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 1c | 39,068$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.79 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x431d…a7d9backed Yes | 20c | 35,511$7,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,173.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…7191backed No | 80c | 35,511$28,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,173.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 17c | 24,253$4,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,081.32 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 5c | 14,192$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.19 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 11c | 13,007$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.06 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 12,750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed Yes | 2c | 12,622$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b75cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,575$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 4c | 9,999$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 17c | 8,528$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.48 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 5c | 7,899$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.86 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…d247backed Yes | 1c | 7,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 15c | 7,080$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.96 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 11c | 6,636$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.35 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…17fdbacked Yes | 6c | 6,237$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…6547backed Yes | 2c | 5,620$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 26cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,446$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 12c | 5,336$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 14c | 5,332$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.52 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 9c | 5,197$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.06 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 1c | 4,712$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 3,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.66 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Yes | 7c | 3,174$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked No | 69c | 3,140$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,089$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.26 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 14c | 3,002$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005f…2fccbacked Yes | 4c | 2,944$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4200…2f52backed Yes | 6c | 2,943$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7a…c24bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,748$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…4ca0backed Yes | 4c | 2,580$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa44…57fcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,573$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…a7e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,374$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d3…44acbacked Yes | 5c | 2,310$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,293$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…fd4abacked Yes | 2c | 2,292$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…e3f3backed Yes | 3c | 2,099$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a90…265dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…ad1abacked Yes | 4c | 1,908$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f4…48d7backed Yes | 6c | 1,893$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…2862backed Yes | 2c | 1,839$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c23…2b66backed Yes | 4c | 1,827$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…cec3backed Yes | 4c | 1,819$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 75c | 1,772$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.64 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…1e18backed Yes | 6c | 1,746$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 16c | 1,720$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.4 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1140…77cabacked Yes | 6c | 1,710$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 17c | 1,655$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.59 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…1e86backed Yes | 3c | 1,638$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,614$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.64 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…3f0fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,603$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x957b…bb9abacked Yes | 6c | 1,599$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,595$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.2 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 24c | 1,555$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 78c | 1,539$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.22 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…09d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,525$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…8421backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 5c | 1,476$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…819fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,432$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…2b73backed Yes | 24c | 1,430$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…2b93backed Yes | 4c | 1,418$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be0…0c71backed Yes | 6c | 1,415$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 23c | 1,387$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.79 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…102bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,386$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…9378backed Yes | 4c | 1,375$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…e76dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,369$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…8b4bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,351$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6c…d4fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,324$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 4c | 1,305$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,297$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…2cefbacked Yes | 4c | 1,281$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…5e69backed Yes | 6c | 1,275$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99d…1a7dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,217$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…438dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,206$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87d…85f3backed Yes | 15c | 1,196$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.34 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda84…e365backed Yes | 1c | 1,155$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…8490backed Yes | 5c | 1,115$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa101…fd73backed Yes | 2c | 1,113$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ba…7bbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,107$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a1…b72cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,055$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…1f21backed Yes | 2c | 1,052$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6841…8001backed Yes | 6c | 1,047$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9258…fb3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,035$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,027$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f2…f167backed Yes | 1c | 1,025$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0590…256bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…00cabacked Yes | 4c | 979.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa167…729ebacked Yes | 2c | 974.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…3e46backed Yes | 6c | 966.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked Yes | 4c | 961.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…44b5backed Yes | 4c | 950.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…94e2backed Yes | 5c | 944.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump deport less than 250,000?this page
- Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?No won
- Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?Yes won
- Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?No won
- Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.