Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2393ed0b0fdc450054c7b9071907eca75cf4fc36e385adf4a0a5f99ee62243e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $580,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $465,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $580,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 627 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 2c | 24,695$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.89 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked Yes | 18c | 14,487$2,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,587.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 16c | 12,442$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020.03 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 8c | 7,022$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.15 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 12c | 5,425$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.29 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 72c | 5,404$3,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.13 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x852c…2453backed Yes | 8c | 5,193$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +309.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 16c | 5,001$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.81 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 5c | 4,967$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 15c | 4,816$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.47 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed Yes | 0c | 3,526$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d11…3d1abacked Yes | 8c | 3,388$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.9 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…d2c9backed Yes | 20c | 3,045$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 56c | 3,033$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,975$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.41 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 2,913$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.03 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 26c | 2,531$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.4 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8b…dbf0backed Yes | 15c | 2,523$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 7c | 2,410$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.34 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,385$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,306$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 8c | 2,137$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.95 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 3c | 2,088$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…1f23backed Yes | 9c | 1,789$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,773$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.52 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes | 6c | 1,761$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa156…ae63backed Yes | 13c | 1,748$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 1,687$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.24 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…bae1backed Yes | 2c | 1,667$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 20c | 1,652$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.21 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,641$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.76 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 13c | 1,597$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.37 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 14c | 1,551$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Yes | 9c | 1,540$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 1,407$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.45 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968e…609abacked Yes | 5c | 1,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…c003backed Yes | 10c | 1,341$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cd…1db6backed Yes | 6c | 1,309$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 41c | 1,223$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.74 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 9c | 1,222$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb87d…85f3backed Yes | 15c | 1,194$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.07 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…eef8backed Yes | 8c | 1,179$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…e7a5backed Yes | 9c | 1,118$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 23c | 1,107$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.24 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…1e18backed Yes | 3c | 1,105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 1,103$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.85 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 71c | 1,079$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c23…2b66backed Yes | 5c | 1,049$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…07acbacked Yes | 10c | 1,049$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…192fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,028$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Yes | 3c | 1,027$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 10c | 1,022$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…e2b2backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.97 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9258…fb3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d50…436fbacked Yes | 1c | 999.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb9…afbbbacked Yes | 1c | 999.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 6c | 981.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…1f0cbacked Yes | 1c | 974.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…6ed1backed Yes | 10c | 967.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be0…0c71backed Yes | 5c | 851.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 16c | 850$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 10c | 816$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.34 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…438dbacked Yes | 13c | 810.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 8c | 809.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…fb67backed Yes | 4c | 799.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 6c | 795.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…b344backed Yes | 20c | 783.75$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 779.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 6c | 749.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes | 25c | 735.15$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -6.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 724.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…fd4abacked Yes | 4c | 722.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 11c | 715.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cf…a780backed Yes | 23c | 706$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 30c | 700.48$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.91 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 15c | 685.63$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…39f9backed Yes | 3c | 680.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f6…1e9bbacked Yes | 23c | 672$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…1e86backed Yes | 2c | 665.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…a4d3backed Yes | 2c | 661.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f8…81a9backed Yes | 9c | 647$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…9e5ebacked Yes | 3c | 639.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…1c04backed Yes | 14c | 636.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97d…199dbacked Yes | 9c | 633$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7679…58f9backed Yes | 9c | 623$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…706cbacked Yes | 27c | 600.01$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…883ebacked Yes | 9c | 597$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 594.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 6c | 587.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Yes | 14c | 584.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 9c | 583.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…8814backed Yes | 5c | 581.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 7c | 579.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 560.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9640…283ebacked Yes | 9c | 556.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…4ba4backed Yes | 6c | 555.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?this page
- Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?No won
- Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?Yes won
- Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport less than 250,000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.