TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$580,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$465,998

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $580,037 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 627 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x94e4…534abacked Yes2c24,695$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.89254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbb…377abacked Yes18c14,487$2,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,587.51330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes16c12,442$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020.0323639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a81…58b0backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10319.7%3 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes8c7,022$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.15205%1 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes12c5,425$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.2918425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No72c5,404$3,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.1313537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852c…2453backed Yes8c5,193$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.54922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+309.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes16c5,001$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.819426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes5c4,967$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.7860%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes15c4,816$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.477834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a6…7049backed Yes0c3,526$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d11…3d1abacked Yes8c3,388$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.9120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2496…d2c9backed Yes20c3,045$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes56c3,033$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6901145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes8c2,975$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.415614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c2,913$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.031,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes26c2,531$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.437533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f8b…dbf0backed Yes15c2,523$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8525…bdbabacked Yes4c2,500$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.411612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-79.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes7c2,410$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.343989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c2,385$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.928015%12 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes15c2,306$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.141631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae43…8194backed Yes8c2,137$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.953729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-47.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes3c2,088$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.343119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5686…1f23backed Yes9c1,789$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes27c1,773$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.521866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes6c1,761$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.57220%0 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa156…ae63backed Yes13c1,748$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes23c1,700$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.53138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes25c1,687$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.2499629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xacb0…bae1backed Yes2c1,667$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes20c1,652$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.212025%5 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes19c1,641$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.763737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes13c1,597$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.374032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid+5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes14c1,551$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22317452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca5…e6c9backed Yes9c1,540$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.62837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c1,407$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4555618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x968e…609abacked Yes5c1,400$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e8c…c003backed Yes10c1,341$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3cd…1db6backed Yes6c1,309$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes41c1,223$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7416544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes9c1,222$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.335817.2%10 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes5c1,200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.725639.3%22 W · 34 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb87d…85f3backed Yes15c1,194$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.07128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32f…eef8backed Yes8c1,179$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f93…e7a5backed Yes9c1,118$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes23c1,107$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.2421634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d2d…1e18backed Yes3c1,105$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes11c1,103$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8519328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No71c1,079$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3166354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c23…2b66backed Yes5c1,049$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.221010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-76%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e55…07acbacked Yes10c1,049$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-62.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61bb…192fbacked Yes2c1,028$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Yes3c1,027$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes10c1,022$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1545…e2b2backed Yes15c1,000$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.971520%3 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9258…fb3dbacked Yes4c1,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.811136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d50…436fbacked Yes1c999.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb9…afbbbacked Yes1c999.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf876…8975backed Yes6c981.31$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3860%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24cb…1f0cbacked Yes1c974.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a02…6ed1backed Yes10c967.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1160%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6be0…0c71backed Yes5c851.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes16c850$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13619638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes10c816$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3416535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6a7…438dbacked Yes13c810.32$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.571127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes8c809.44$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ccb…fb67backed Yes4c799.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes6c795.31$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.121533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecfa…b344backed Yes20c783.75$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes5c779.06$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.21419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes6c749.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.413414.7%5 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes25c735.15$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1862615.4%4 W · 22 L-6.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-78.4%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c724.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.22787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf5…fd4abacked Yes4c722.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b89…e708backed Yes11c715.47$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86cf…a780backed Yes23c706$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes30c700.48$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.913860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes15c685.63$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.448632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe340…39f9backed Yes3c680.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92f6…1e9bbacked Yes23c672$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dab…1e86backed Yes2c665.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc38…a4d3backed Yes2c661.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f8…81a9backed Yes9c647$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc1…9e5ebacked Yes3c639.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6aa…1c04backed Yes14c636.62$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97d…199dbacked Yes9c633$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7679…58f9backed Yes9c623$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4e…706cbacked Yes27c600.01$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.66425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7e…883ebacked Yes9c597$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c594.13$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9744111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x53cb…fc91backed Yes6c587.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.11421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x481d…48cfbacked Yes14c584.75$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.132441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8973…a37cbacked Yes9c583.34$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.171323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa312…8814backed Yes5c581.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes7c579.36$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.254040%16 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+82.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes5c560.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.721466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9640…283ebacked Yes9c556.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad6…4ba4backed Yes6c555.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.