Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49a20c7523c271099008f3ef9a31521263b24d637959852a391e6b4697b1a437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $547,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $310,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $547,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 0c | 71,185$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.74 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,170$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,220$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861a…bf65backed Yes | 1c | 7,906$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7134…8febbacked Yes | 1c | 5,753$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked Yes | 2c | 5,376$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…cd03backed Yes | 0c | 5,313$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 0c | 4,347$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 4,187$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 4,101$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 3c | 3,728$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…07acbacked Yes | 3c | 3,694$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 1c | 3,541$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…dc1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,504$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…fd4abacked Yes | 0c | 3,419$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0af…917cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,931$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes | 5c | 2,688$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.72 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -6.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,313$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd739…06b8backed Yes | 1c | 2,291$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…5647backed Yes | 1c | 2,193$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,177$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c23…2b66backed Yes | 1c | 2,146$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…ce25backed Yes | 6c | 2,135$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…5fcabacked Yes | 1c | 2,080$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…7774backed Yes | 1c | 1,824$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 4c | 1,748$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 1c | 1,656$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13f5…5cacbacked Yes | 1c | 1,636$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeba…3bdcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,614$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes | 3c | 1,501$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 1,291$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…884dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,281$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd709…cadebacked Yes | 1c | 1,266$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87d…85f3backed Yes | 4c | 1,194$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a4…196cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,194$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…44b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,170$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 1c | 1,150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…a493backed Yes | 2c | 1,101$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,077$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…7e33backed Yes | 1c | 1,043$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc96…c011backed Yes | 1c | 1,030$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…0ac4backed Yes | 2c | 1,008$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf49…1cc7backed Yes | 3c | 939.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…e2b2backed Yes | 5c | 924.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 5c | 800$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…f5e6backed Yes | 6c | 670.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Yes | 3c | 660.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab10…04d9backed Yes | 3c | 616.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…3687backed Yes | 4c | 532$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…44d8backed Yes | 4c | 504.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f3…2c8ebacked Yes | 4c | 469$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb370…28d5backed Yes | 4c | 397.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…5b5cbacked Yes | 9c | 392.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1d…1517backed Yes | 4c | 290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…cddabacked Yes | 4c | 282$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 279$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…174bbacked Yes | 4c | 268.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 62c | 47.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?this page
- Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?No won
- Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?Yes won
- Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?No won
- Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport less than 250,000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.