Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44f08744458b8896620cd3330bc5e1ea69df4199b02d4fc583b3fc96e5d314ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $566,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $377,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $566,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 0c | 57,250$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.49 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 10,333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 9,009$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 1c | 8,435$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 2c | 7,635$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.48 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…2a22backed Yes | 1c | 6,757$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 1c | 6,253$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7134…8febbacked Yes | 1c | 6,207$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 5,451$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.41 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 11c | 5,001$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.6 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,934$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa2…3b5cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,664$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…5e2abacked Yes | 0c | 4,664$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 4,523$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…245dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,391$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 4c | 3,425$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 3c | 3,411$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes | 2c | 3,385$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.47 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 3,238$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.37 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 3,055$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes | 3c | 2,966$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6d…22a0backed Yes | 2c | 2,738$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…17a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,686$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…07acbacked Yes | 4c | 2,616$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…9559backed Yes | 2c | 2,533$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked Yes | 4c | 2,494$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,483$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 1c | 2,381$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x957c…a8edbacked Yes | 3c | 2,359$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,092$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…5fcabacked Yes | 1c | 2,060$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…fb67backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,981$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47c…77f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,961$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9640…283ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,924$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 2c | 1,812$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1739…353bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,773$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 2c | 1,764$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…8529backed Yes | 6c | 1,742$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…884dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,647$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,599$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes | 2c | 1,406$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c23…2b66backed Yes | 2c | 1,307$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…dc1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,305$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 1,264$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…5647backed Yes | 2c | 1,219$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…d91ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,203$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87d…85f3backed Yes | 11c | 1,195$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…6646backed Yes | 2c | 1,092$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,008$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…1e18backed Yes | 2c | 1,007$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…e2b2backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…096bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…c0a2backed Yes | 4c | 923$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…f1c5backed Yes | 3c | 912.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 2c | 852.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…1e86backed Yes | 1c | 850.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x559f…04a4backed Yes | 2c | 819.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…c9d5backed Yes | 2c | 783.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…4a20backed Yes | 1c | 779.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a4…05f5backed Yes | 3c | 762.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…8156backed Yes | 3c | 753.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44e…e1d7backed Yes | 2c | 719.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…edfabacked Yes | 3c | 719$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8615…d10abacked Yes | 2c | 708.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…edd5backed Yes | 3c | 678.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes | 13c | 640$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -6.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 8c | 611.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd672…fbd8backed Yes | 3c | 597.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 9c | 582.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…c310backed Yes | 2c | 573.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d3…5bb3backed Yes | 3c | 561$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e87…1c22backed Yes | 8c | 560$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb370…28d5backed Yes | 9c | 536.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 516.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…c718backed Yes | 10c | 450.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76dcbacked Yes | 3c | 442$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…4ef7backed Yes | 4c | 422$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92b…4e27backed Yes | 12c | 417.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c17…7815backed Yes | 2c | 414.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…1b55backed Yes | 9c | 329.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 11c | 320$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…8272backed Yes | 3c | 306.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…0829backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…a493backed Yes | 4c | 286.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…722dbacked Yes | 5c | 273$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b9…0fa2backed Yes | 4c | 260$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 8c | 246.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 7c | 238.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…44d8backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 14c | 219.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec44…2fffbacked Yes | 5c | 210$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…6311backed Yes | 11c | 150.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes | 14c | 144.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 16c | 124.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 12c | 118.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?this page
- Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?No won
- Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?No won
- Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?Yes won
- Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?No won
- Will Trump deport less than 250,000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.