TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7134…8feb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 53 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+593.1%+$1,373.06
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+347.9%+$134.42
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.32
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51.98
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.61
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$81.81
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$524.6
Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$121.5
Will the U.S. collect more than $2t in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$57.25
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$93.75
Will the U.S. collect between $1t and $2t in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$91.65
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.08
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$118.88
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$11.35
All 14 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$18.9
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$14.2
Will Dua Lipa perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$10.19
Will Jalon Walker be the 2025-2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$26.18
Will Abdul Carter be the 2025-2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$37.07
Will James Pearce Jr. be the 2025-2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$60.83
Will Nick Emmanowori be the 2025-2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$116.48
Will Aidan Hutchinson be the 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$38.17
Will Trevor Lawrence be the 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$52.68
Will TreVeyon Henderson be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$179.44
Will Emeka Egbuka be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$76.41
Will Jaxson Dart be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$40.13
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-77.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-74.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+58.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$25.23
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+160.8%+$193.06
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Negative GDP growth in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$23.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.19
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.