Movies · resolved market
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa417870f2a38c6c97ea5283e6a1091dda0530e0e97f24467ad996f278dd60c0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $220,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,244 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 0c | 14,654$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…e8dfbacked Yes | 60c | 5,023$3,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,019.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 8c | 4,894$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.99 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…b4cebacked No | 5c | 4,673$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 4c | 2,487$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 2,139$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfc…e387backed No | 3c | 2,042$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…f162backed No | 4c | 1,886$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 19c | 1,822$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.25 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed No | 4c | 1,721$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 7c | 1,671$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.03 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 14c | 1,571$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.75 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -7.5wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9978…ad31backed No | 4c | 1,520$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d35…6a7bbacked No | 4c | 1,469$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked No | 9c | 1,380$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 78c | 1,296$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.12 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…ac19backed No | 4c | 1,268$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 1,259$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 6c | 1,257$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…0cd8backed No | 4c | 1,169$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed No | 12c | 1,045$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3720…280dbacked No | 4c | 815$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 4c | 813.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 5c | 802.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…5709backed Yes | 78c | 799$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.78 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 70c | 786.16$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.03 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc44…f694backed No | 17c | 776.91$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…87f3backed No | 13c | 757.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed No | 19c | 756.13$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 6c | 750$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed No | 13c | 722$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 39c | 698$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.44 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 6c | 679.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 8c | 661.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 4c | 648$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 77c | 645.97$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.58 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed No | 5c | 622.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 7c | 579.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 6c | 575$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked No | 22c | 561$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked Yes | 79c | 543$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked No | 22c | 534$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 14c | 533$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 5c | 514.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked No | 21c | 513$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.74 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed No | 9c | 499.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 7c | 498.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 9c | 482$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed Yes | 63c | 462$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 6c | 443.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed No | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 41c | 395$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.71 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 6c | 393.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe27…9623backed Yes | 79c | 389$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed No | 12c | 387$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 5c | 386.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 382.35$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 3c | 377.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 71c | 376$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.22 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee7…819fbacked No | 14c | 362.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 22c | 348$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd0…9570backed No | 6c | 330$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 3c | 328.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 3c | 305.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 70c | 304.32$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed No | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 9c | 294.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked No | 22c | 294$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 5c | 276.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f2…0684backed No | 4c | 275.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 22c | 265$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 22c | 265$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 78c | 265$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed No | 21c | 252$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…606abacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c65…4d86backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed No | 37c | 232$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 39c | 230$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked No | 42c | 228$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 5c | 224$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 5c | 224$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked No | 5c | 224$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 5c | 224$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6392…04dfbacked No | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 62c | 208.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 62c | 207.19$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 8c | 204$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 12c | 202$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…1eadbacked No | 13c | 200.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed No | 22c | 197$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 9c | 192.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 20c | 187.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed No | 37c | 180$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 56c | 175$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Bugonia win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Is This Thing On? win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will No Other Choice win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Nouvelle Vague win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Nuremberg win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wake Up Dead Man win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.