Movies · resolved market
Will Frankenstein win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaab9021b99acc38699821455c9332838c88f1609071f7f2e39da2f56e52d9e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,840 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 0c | 8,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 0c | 3,900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…fc92backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7874…8d9ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,840$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873e…4ef4backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…169bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 2c | 1,348$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,335$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…f8aabacked Yes | 1c | 1,132$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d5…4d28backed Yes | 5c | 1,037$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,016$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 1c | 886$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed Yes | 2c | 856.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frankenstein win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Bugonia win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Is This Thing On? win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will No Other Choice win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Nouvelle Vague win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Nuremberg win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wake Up Dead Man win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.