Movies · resolved market
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d13a589a7b17a851968554a022b2a9ff8075d27f7016d1d39855dd6391926c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,406 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3acb…d235backed Yes | 4c | 11,939$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…0b21backed Yes | 5c | 9,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,625$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.64 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed Yes | 7c | 3,373$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.43 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09aa…bdb6backed Yes | 3c | 2,888$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 2,335$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.31 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…e8acbacked Yes | 8c | 2,234$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea5…fd88backed Yes | 5c | 1,875$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed Yes | 12c | 1,693$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…c130backed Yes | 3c | 1,679$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 1,637$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,229$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…36f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,219$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 4c | 1,219$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…277bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,201$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…81c2backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacf…0ba0backed Yes | 4c | 1,181$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 1,119$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 3c | 1,055$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…d917backed Yes | 7c | 1,013$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 11c | 1,010$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…62d2backed Yes | 4c | 996$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 15c | 987.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…8ec9backed Yes | 12c | 984$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed Yes | 10c | 899.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…7b0ebacked Yes | 3c | 899.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b82…2812backed Yes | 4c | 835$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 12c | 829$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.16 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…3427backed Yes | 10c | 812.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aef…c58cbacked Yes | 4c | 812$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…fc69backed Yes | 12c | 798$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…36c3backed Yes | 12c | 788.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes | 9c | 772.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 4c | 750$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d5…4d28backed Yes | 4c | 745.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9836…6f2ebacked Yes | 7c | 739.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147d…fcc9backed Yes | 5c | 730$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffc…0310backed Yes | 10c | 708.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 702.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 3c | 700.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5a2bbacked Yes | 5c | 648.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b8…b240backed Yes | 3c | 629.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…6e01backed Yes | 4c | 599.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 8c | 593.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 557.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 553$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Yes | 3c | 543.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed Yes | 12c | 532$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0235…7be8backed Yes | 5c | 497.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…6bb9backed Yes | 4c | 483.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…6444backed Yes | 4c | 466.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 3c | 452.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 450.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 433.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes | 12c | 433$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 11c | 428.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 4c | 420.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed No | 79c | 382$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 11c | 372$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…3a78backed Yes | 14c | 365.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…3211backed Yes | 3c | 363.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 4c | 361.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 12c | 356$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 31c | 344$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 10c | 335$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 331.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…04a3backed Yes | 5c | 329.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 20c | 323$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…ba4cbacked Yes | 20c | 320$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed Yes | 3c | 319.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed Yes | 12c | 317$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed No | 69c | 315$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.22 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70b…de12backed Yes | 3c | 312.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…1151backed Yes | 4c | 305.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 72c | 305$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 80c | 298$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4387…2b3dbacked Yes | 9c | 297.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed No | 71c | 296$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 8c | 291.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef9…cb4dbacked Yes | 9c | 288.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 32c | 277$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 16c | 265$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 29c | 261$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed Yes | 11c | 254$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…a54dbacked Yes | 11c | 254$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…6e19backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…e3adbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d8…03dbbacked Yes | 8c | 247.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes | 11c | 244$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…7ebfbacked Yes | 11c | 240$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 72c | 238$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 12c | 230$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 12c | 227$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…2261backed Yes | 20c | 223$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 28c | 212$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 12c | 209$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 8c | 205.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Bugonia win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Is This Thing On? win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will No Other Choice win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Nouvelle Vague win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Nuremberg win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wake Up Dead Man win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.