TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x71d2…e109

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
137
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Movies, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT3435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.8
Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+549.4%+$303.71
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+281.7%+$320.29
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$24.98
Will Naz Reid win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.23
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.4
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.57
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$73.08
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$83.22
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.59
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.2
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$338.29
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.78
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.92
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.85
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$328.68
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.18
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.22
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.18
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$422.41
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.51
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+176.2%+$137.81
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.84
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.52
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$122.72
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.7
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+145.4%+$375.06
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.44
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.34
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+72.4%+$22.68
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$498Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+26.6%+$132.3
Will Mona Fastvold be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$26.3
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$79.65
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,072Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+25.4%+$272.48
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$60.93
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+37%+$92.88
Will Come See Me in the Good Light be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$343.86
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+418%+$142.83
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$319Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+58.7%+$187.59
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+102.4%+$266.63
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$85.12
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$48.84
Will "His & Hers" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+170.3%+$103.32
Will "The Secret Agent" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+270.4%+$501.51
Will Hamnet win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$799Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$799
Will Sinners win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+53.8%+$81.55
Will Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) win Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$96.7
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$202.41
Will Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus) win Best Actress – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$26.86
Will One Battle After Another win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+132.6%+$319.77
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.44
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$332.37
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$226.73
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$69.3
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20.28
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+343.2%+$107.64
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$178.5
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$150.92
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$628.44
Will Israel strike 2 countries in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$75.36
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+100%+$30
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 10–15 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$89.1
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$69
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$612Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$611.83
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+63.6%+$137.25
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.28
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+400%+$47.2
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$405Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$199.65
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.96
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+228.6%+$115.48
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$56.55
Will Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$139.19
Will Fredrick Love win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$92.32
Will Mills flip Platner for Maine Dem Senate Primary Winner by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$59.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.52
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.18
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+138.1%+$179.22
Will PLN win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$82.75
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 62% and 64%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.71
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 55% and 58%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$57.12
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$60.16
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+112.8%+$188.15
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$15.96
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+809.1%+$854.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.05
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$175.03
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$342
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$223.16
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$442Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+54.9%+$242.86
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+56.3%+$6.48
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+354.5%+$86.58
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10.88
All 8 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+100.8%+$228.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$18.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.08
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.