TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,012 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab4f…552fbacked No56c6,928$3,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,074.0312547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes10c5,492$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.4625311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes47c3,754$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.3614750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5739…5f1abacked Yes29c3,621$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.994946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes18c2,854$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.5423435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes27c2,379$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.311839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x610a…cb39backed No72c2,342$1,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.141546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No47c1,916$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.748355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes61c1,542$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.726647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed No65c1,505$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.583560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c1,422$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2214920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes9c1,355$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.323818.4%7 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes10c1,197$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.913228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes25c1,173$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.4830837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c1,105$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.44704.3%3 W · 67 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…8bf6backed No75c1,063$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed No47c1,053$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes55c1,048$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.624258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No43c905$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.5535341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed Yes55c888$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.4580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5493…58b9backed No38c880.21$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.55771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+43.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed Yes53c856$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes6c820$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28c8…a94dbacked Yes27c792$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb9a…b801backed No66c790.34$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.64580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b1…da36backed No77c754.4$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.81540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes7c750$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.58615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No46c716$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed No47c705$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a8…8edebacked No39c690$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.93545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed Yes53c658$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7c1…675ebacked No73c619.04$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.462454.2%13 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9290…3452backed Yes21c599.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1292850%14 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed Yes54c581$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.74560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d3c…e797backed No76c553.95$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.19862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f7…395ebacked No73c548$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes20c543$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.448639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked No45c525$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked No47c511$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.83560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5a…747abacked Yes18c505.13$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed No74c500$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1293461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffc…cf45backed Yes32c499.98$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158130%0 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed Yes26c499.66$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1304151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes53c488$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes53c471$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes53c471$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d0f…af26backed No47c471$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked No47c470$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed No45c458$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed No47c455$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked Yes25c454$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed Yes54c446$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-77.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc886…696fbacked No47c428$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0991…e29abacked Yes32c427.35$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.982623.1%6 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No39c420$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2557548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x668b…3884backed Yes55c404$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed No48c403$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x806f…418ebacked Yes61c400$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed Yes53c382$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.46450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No37c373.78$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.488660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes41c366$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes27c359$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc315…6411backed No73c359$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked Yes53c350$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed Yes52c347$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.44560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed No47c334$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No46c332$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x153b…65d8backed Yes46c330.6$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.313161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8669…7111backed Yes25c325$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick21cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed14…bebcbacked No36c308.7$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.221464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+43.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x49f6…a4f9backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed No47c289$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.172100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+95.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…24f0backed Yes54c278$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa24d…d44bbacked Yes62c260.08$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.651656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaee…bd71backed Yes53c258$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b4…1f6ebacked Yes24c254.19$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.01137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.27per pick34cpaid-85.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes32c250$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-70.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes47c241.79$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.170%0 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes8c239.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202450%12 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddae…5d62backed Yes61c239.48$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.873243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc924…63b9backed No42c238.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.073100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+115.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes62c230.71$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0414147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed No47c225$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceff…dae4backed Yes33c219.77$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes9c219.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.93120%0 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes19c210$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.93351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ca6…6fa8backed No39c207.02$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.281442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No39c202.84$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.19360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No79c202.53$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.539475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x85fe…51ffbacked No37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1261844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec64…aab1backed Yes62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes23c196.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0311840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8572…63ccbacked Yes63c195.06$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.891752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes53c195$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d76…b50ebacked No38c190$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1e4…c3d5backed No38c190$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d62…fddabacked No53c168.91$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.552568%17 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc123…115cbacked Yes53c166$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a58…4508backed Yes62c160.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed Yes60c160.27$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.845561.8%34 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.