Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa345aaeb75306ba5516faa3bb6d346bb878a278110b54786419913e773ce7e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 80c | 7,988$6,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.94 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes | 25c | 4,630$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 76c | 4,206$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.5 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 24c | 4,088$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.72 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 14c | 3,478$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.95 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 47cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 31c | 2,997$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.05 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 2,851$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.83 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 5c | 2,719$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.82 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…1439backed Yes | 13c | 2,691$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.92 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 6c | 2,354$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.14 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 16c | 2,293$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.12 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,614$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.99 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 22c | 1,418$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.21 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 12c | 1,405$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.98 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…f831backed No | 77c | 1,290$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 10c | 1,225$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 21c | 1,183$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.45 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd937…cb9abacked No | 78c | 1,167$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 20c | 1,027$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.14 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…747abacked Yes | 10c | 981.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 914.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 80c | 902.42$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.34 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…a66abacked No | 79c | 826.41$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 776.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…6964backed No | 79c | 758.61$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 32c | 563.01$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 509.64$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 44c | 508.76$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 23c | 499.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 7c | 481.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d3…df67backed No | 75c | 426.89$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…9821backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d09ebacked Yes | 19c | 399.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb055…659dbacked No | 70c | 386.23$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 386.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 4c | 299.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 295.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…9b3bbacked Yes | 23c | 285.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed Yes | 31c | 284.69$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 8c | 252$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 29c | 250.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…2dd7backed Yes | 16c | 246.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…30abbacked No | 61c | 241.8$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…b801backed No | 78c | 236.29$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed Yes | 37c | 231.47$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…053fbacked No | 78c | 230$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 71c | 219.97$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…e412backed No | 67c | 214.89$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6999backed Yes | 33c | 205.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked No | 77c | 194.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0920…3901backed No | 80c | 188.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.38per pick | 55cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85e4…e131backed No | 67c | 165.22$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x693a…0ed9backed No | 66c | 150.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 35c | 150.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85fe…51ffbacked No | 63c | 145.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b05…ccccbacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 122.52$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 15c | 118.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09c9…8216backed Yes | 31c | 117.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +49%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…0b0fbacked No | 71c | 112.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c6d9backed No | 73c | 109.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…661fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0247…84d6backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…8464backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes | 29c | 91.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5424…63d2backed Yes | 25c | 81.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa265…a9dfbacked No | 66c | 76.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…0b93backed No | 75c | 66.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…6d13backed Yes | 17c | 64.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a89…7003backed Yes | 40c | 62.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…aa75backed No | 76c | 60.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78da…e609backed No | 68c | 59.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 22c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf8…69abbacked Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Yes | 35c | 56.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8def…8b44backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…0bd5backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…0912backed No | 72c | 47.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…4c36backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa22…69a6backed No | 73c | 41.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by January 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.